IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imk/pbrief/155-2023.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mehr öffentlicher Wohnungsbau zum Erhalt der Kapazitäten?

Author

Listed:
  • Lukas Jonas

    (Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg)

  • Carolin Martin

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Thomas Theobald

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Der Wohnungsbau in Deutschland hat bis zum Jahr 2022 einen über eine Dekade währenden Aufschwung erfahren, der sich neben nachfrageseitigen Faktoren insbesondere auf günstige Finanzierungsbedingungen stützte. Mit den Energiepreisschocks aufgrund des Ukraine-Kriegs und den darauffolgenden Zinserhöhungen der Europäischen Zentralbank hat sich der Ausblick für das Baugewerbe insgesamt deutlich verschlechtert. Der vorliegende Policy Brief schätzt auf Basis übersichtlicher Kointegration-Spezifikationen wichtige Kenngrößen der Bauaktivität und prognostiziert ihre zukünftige Entwicklung. Zwar sind die geschätzten Spezifikationen mit großer Unsicherheit verbunden und sollten deshalb vor allem als Risikoszenario gesehen werden; die prognostizierte Entwicklung ist allerdings erheblich: Danach würden die realen Wohnungsbauinvestitionen (Bruttowertschöpfung des Baugewerbes) 2023 und 2024 um 20,9 Mrd. Euro (13,4 Mrd. Euro) bzw. 16,4 Mrd. Euro (10,6 Mrd. Euro) zurückgehen. Die Baufertigstellungen werden der modellierten Spezifikation zufolge von 295.000 Wohnungen 2022 auf 223.000 Wohnungen 2023 und 177.000 Wohnungen 2024 fallen. Die Projektion für 2024 übertrifft den 2009 erreichten historischen Tiefststand der Wohnungsbautätigkeit nur noch leicht. Um angesichts dieses drohenden Einbruchs der Bauaktivität einen anhaltenden Kapazitätsabbau im Baugewerbe zu verhindern, der auch mittel- bis langfristig das verfügbare Angebot weit hinter dem Bedarf zurückbleiben lässt, empfiehlt der Policy Brief einen auf die tatsächliche Entwicklung in dem Sektor konditionierte Ausweitung des öffentlichen Wohnungbaus.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Jonas & Carolin Martin & Thomas Theobald, 2023. "Mehr öffentlicher Wohnungsbau zum Erhalt der Kapazitäten?," IMK Policy Brief 155-2023, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:pbrief:155-2023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_pb_155_2023.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    2. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2018. "Which Fiscal Multipliers Are Regime‐Dependent? A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1160-1182, September.
    3. Norbert Hiller & Oliver Lerbs, 2022. "Wie stark reagiert der deutsche Wohnungsbau auf steigende Kapitalmarktzinsen? [How Strongly Does German Residential Construction React to Rising Capital Market Interest Rates?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(9), pages 716-723, September.
    4. Lopez, J. Humberto, 1997. "The power of the ADF test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 5-10, November.
    5. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911.
    2. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    3. Kuang, Pei, 2014. "A model of housing and credit cycles with imperfect market knowledge," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 419-437.
    4. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-745, June.
    5. Zanin, Luca & Marra, Giampiero, 2012. "Assessing the functional relationship between CO2 emissions and economic development using an additive mixed model approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1328-1337.
    6. PAUL CASHIN & C. JOHN McDERMOTT, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    7. Francesca Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2014. "Savings and investments in the OECD: a panel cointegration study with a new bootstrap test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1271-1300, June.
    8. Pei Kuang, 2013. "Imperfect Knowledge About Asset Prices and Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 13-02, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    9. Grossmann, Volker & Larin, Benjamin & Löfflad, Hans Torben & Steger, Thomas, 2021. "Distributional consequences of surging housing rents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    10. Paul Cashin & C. McDermott, 2002. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 219-235, July.
    11. Arslan Yavuz, 2014. "Interest rate fluctuations and equilibrium in the housing market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-32, January.
    12. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Synchronicity of real and financial cycles and structural characteristics in EU countries," CEIS Research Paper 414, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Sep 2017.
    13. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    14. Storesletten, Kjetil & Zhao, Bo & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2020. "Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis’ Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 14964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    16. Stolbov, M., 2012. "Financial Accelerator Theory and the Russian Mortgage Market," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 79-98.
    17. Herzer Dierk, 2022. "Semi-endogenous Versus Schumpeterian Growth Models: A Critical Review of the Literature and New Evidence," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 73(1), pages 1-55, April.
    18. Liu, Yaping & Sadiq, Farah & Ali, Wajahat & Kumail, Tafazal, 2022. "Does tourism development, energy consumption, trade openness and economic growth matters for ecological footprint: Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve and pollution haven hypothesis for Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    19. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    20. Vasco Gabriel, 2003. "Tests for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 411-435.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imk:pbrief:155-2023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sabine Nemitz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imkhbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.