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Economic Impact of Selected Conflicts in the Middle East: What Can We Learn from the Past?

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  • Miss Randa Sab

Abstract

Using narrative-based country-case studies, war episodes in the Middle East were examined to assess their economic impact on conflict and neighboring economies. The paper found that conflicts led to a contraction in growth, higher inflation, large fiscal and current account deficits, loss of reserves, and a weakened financial system. Post-conflict recovery depended on the economic and institutional development of the country, economic structure, duration of the war, international engagement, and prevailing security conditions. The net economic impact on neighboring countries varied according to their initial economic conditions, number and income level of refugees they hosted, economic integration, and external assistance.

Suggested Citation

  • Miss Randa Sab, 2014. "Economic Impact of Selected Conflicts in the Middle East: What Can We Learn from the Past?," IMF Working Papers 2014/100, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ades, Alberto & Chua, Hak B, 1997. "Thy Neighbor's Curse: Regional Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 279-304, September.
    2. Olaf De Groot, 2010. "The Spillover Effects Of Conflict On Economic Growth In Neighbouring Countries In Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 149-164.
    3. Tony Addison & Abdur Chowdhury & Mansoob Murshed, 2002. "By How Much Does Conflict Reduce Financial Development?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-48, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Mr. Thomas Helbling & Ms. Sena Eken, 1999. "Back to the Future: Postwar Reconstruction and Stabilization in Lebanon," IMF Occasional Papers 1999/005, International Monetary Fund.
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    1. Andriy Polchanov, 2018. "Peculiarities of the Development of Ukraine's Financial Potential in the Period of Military Conflict," Oblik i finansi, Institute of Accounting and Finance, issue 2, pages 96-101, June.
    2. Devadas,Sharmila & Elbadawi,Ibrahim Ahmed & Loayza,Norman V., 2019. "Growth after War in Syria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8967, The World Bank.
    3. Nadia Al-Rousan & Dana Al-Najjar & Hazem Al-Najjar, 2023. "Assessing the Impact of Syrian Refugee Influx on the Jordanian Stock Exchange Market," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Bandyopadhyay, Arnab & Bhatnagar, Sameer, 2023. "Impact of COVID-19 on ports, multimodal logistics and transport sector in India: Responses and policy imperatives," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 15-25.
    5. Nataliia Vygovska & Andriy Polchanov, 2019. "Estimation of the Losses of the Ukraine's Financial Potential from Military Conflict," Oblik i finansi, Institute of Accounting and Finance, issue 4, pages 70-77, December.
    6. Jeanne Gobat & Ms. Kristina Kostial, 2016. "Syria’s Conflict Economy," IMF Working Papers 2016/123, International Monetary Fund.
    7. José Pedro Pontes & Armando J. Garcia Pires, 2020. "(De) industrialization in the Von Thünen’s economy," Working Papers REM 2020/0141, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

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