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Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

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  • Mr. Andrew Berg
  • Mr. Enrico G Berkes
  • Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
  • Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
  • Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov

Abstract

The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden (the “debt threshold approach” DTA). The DSF contains a rule for aggregating the information contained in these five different variables which we label the “worst-case aggregator” (WCA) in view of the fact that the DSF considers a breach of any one of the thresholds sufficient to indicate a high risk of debt distress. However, neither the DTA nor the WCA has heretofore been subject to empirical testing. We find that: (1) the DTA loses information relative to a simple proposed alternative; (2) the WCA is too conservative (predicting crises too often) in terms of the loss function used in the DSF; and (3) the WCA is less accurate than some simple proposed alternative aggregators as a predictor of debt distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Enrico G Berkes & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov, 2014. "Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/048, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/048
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ugo PANIZZA, 2015. "Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries - The Grants versus Loans Debate in a World without Crystal Balls," Working Papers P120, FERDI.
    2. Maxime TERRIEUX & Benoît Jonveaux & Marin Ferry (Université Gustave Eiffel, DIAL), 2021. "Debt sustainability in Africa: state of play and future challenges," Working Paper 5b1b8e30-4a94-42f3-9e4b-9, Agence française de développement.
    3. Maxime TERRIEUX & Benoît Jonveaux & Marin Ferry (Université Gustave Eiffel, DIAL), 2021. "La soutenabilité des dettes en Afrique : état des lieux et enjeux futurs," Working Paper 5b1b8e30-4a94-42f3-9e4b-9, Agence française de développement.
    4. Lang, Valentin F. & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2018. "Room for discretion? Biased decision-making in international financial institutions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-16.
    5. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2014. "On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems: Comment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 338-340.

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