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Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries - The Grants versus Loans Debate in a World without Crystal Balls

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  • Ugo PANIZZA

    (Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement de Genève)

Abstract

When allocating their aid budget, development agencies need to decide whether to give outright grants or use concessional loans that blend a grant and credit element. Theory suggests that the degree of concessionality should be negatively correlated with debt sustainability. Several donors use the World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Framework to guide their aid decisions. They give loans to low-risk countries, a blend of loans and grants to medium-risk countries, and only grants to high-risk countries. The paper shows that there are problems with this approach and proposes an alternative allocation mechanism based on GDP-indexed concessional loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Ugo PANIZZA, 2015. "Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries - The Grants versus Loans Debate in a World without Crystal Balls," Working Papers P120, FERDI.
    • Handle: RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. berlage, Lodewijk & cassimon, Danny & dreze, Jacques & Reding, Paul, 2003. "Prospective Aid and Indebtedness Relief: A Proposal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 1635-1654, October.
    2. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2009. "The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 651-698, September.
    3. Daniel Cohen & Pierre Jacquet & Helmut Reisen, 2007. "Loans or Grants?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(4), pages 764-782, December.
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    8. Simeon Djankov & Jose G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2006. "Does Foreign Aid Help," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 26(1), pages 1-28, Winter.
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    11. Helmut Reisen & Sokhna Ndoye, 2008. "Prudent versus Imprudent Lending to Africa: From debt relief to emerging lenders," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 268, OECD Publishing.
    12. Helmut Reisen, 2008. "From Old-Donor Debt Relief to Emerging Lenders in Africa," OECD Development Centre Policy Insights 57, OECD Publishing.
    13. Matthew Odedokun, 2004. "Multilateral and Bilateral Loans versus Grants: Issues and Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 239-263, February.
    14. Oliver Morrissey, & Olaf Islei, & Daniel M'Amanja, 2006. "Aid Loans versus Aid Grants: Are the Effects Different?," Discussion Papers 06/07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    15. Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Enrico G Berkes & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov, 2014. "Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/048, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Danny Cassimon & Karel Verbeke & Dennis Essers, 2017. "The IMF-WB Debt Sustainability Framework: Procedures, Applications and Criticisms," Development Finance Agenda, Chartered Institute of Development Finance, vol. 3(1), pages 4-6.
    2. Ugo Panizza, 2022. "Long-Term Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies: A Counterfactual Analysis," IHEID Working Papers 07-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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