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Identification and estimation of preference distributions when voters are ideological

  • Antonio Merlo
  • Aureo de Paula

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London)

This paper studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of voters' preferences when voters are ideological. We establish that voter preference distributions and other parameters of interest can be identified from aggregate electoral data. We also show that these objects can be consistently estimated and illustrate our analysis by performing an actual estimation using data from the 1999 European Parliament elections.

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File URL: http://www.cemmap.ac.uk/wps/cwp511313.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series CeMMAP working papers with number CWP51/13.

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Date of creation: Oct 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:51/13
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  1. Andrew Chesher & J. M. C. Santos Silva, 2002. "Taste Variation in Discrete Choice Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 147-168.
  2. Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell, 2003. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1565-1578, 09.
  3. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1997. "Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Racine, Jeffrey S., 2008. "Nonparametric Econometrics: A Primer," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(1), pages 1-88, March.
  5. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2002. "Political economics and public finance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1549-1659 Elsevier.
  6. Andrews, Donald W.K., 1992. "Generic Uniform Convergence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 241-257, June.
  7. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July.
  8. Degan, Arianna & Merlo, Antonio, 2009. "Do voters vote ideologically?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 1868-1894, September.
  9. Eric Gautier & Yuichi Kitamura, 2009. "Nonparametric Estimation in Random Coefficients Binary Choice Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1721, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Gallant, Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1989. "Seminonparametric Estimation of Conditionally Constrained Heterogeneous Processes: Asset Pricing Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1091-1120, September.
  11. Alesina, Alberto, 1988. "Credibility and Policy Convergence in a Two-Party System with Rational Voters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 796-805, September.
  12. Newey, W.K., 1989. "Uniform Convergence In Probability And Stochastic Equicontinuity," Papers 342, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  13. Victor Fenton & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1996. "Qualitative and Asymptotic Performance of SNP Density Estimators," Working Papers 96-17, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  14. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  15. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135.
  16. Spenkuch, Jörg, 2013. "On the Extent of Strategic Voting," MPRA Paper 50198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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