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Transición demográfica en economías cerradas y abiertas: historia de dos regiones

  • Giovanni L. Violante
  • Orazio P. Attanasio

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se elabora un modelo general de equilibrio generacional sobrepuesto para evaluar cuantitativamente la manera en que la transición demográfica (disminución de las tasas de mortalidad y fertilidad) inciden en las variables agregadas (salarios, tasa de interés, producción) y en el bienestar intergeneracional en economías cerradas y abiertas. Realizamos este análisis en dos economías calibradas para asemejarse al Norte (EE. UU. y Europa) y América Latina. Nuestras simulaciones sugieren que la transición demográfica puede haber generado un crecimiento del ingreso per cápita de hasta 0,5% al año por encima del crecimiento en estado estable durante los últimos 50 años en América Latina y de 0,3% en el Norte.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4195.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4195
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  1. Kjetil Storesletten, 2000. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy through Immigration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 300-323, April.
  2. Andrew B. Abel, . "The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
  4. Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
  6. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
  7. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October.
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