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What are the Fiscal Limits for the Developing Economies of Central America and the Caribbean?

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  • Wright, Allan
  • Ramirez, Francisco A.

Abstract

This study uses simulations of state-dependent distributions of fiscal limits for 18 economies in Central America and the Caribbean to better understand governments¿ ability to service their debt, arising from endogenously determined dynamic Laffer curves. Using a small, open economy model to simulate macroeconomic fundamentals and fiscal policy interactions, the empirical findings produced results not previous available for these economies, showing varying and wider distributions of fiscal limits for the open economy model subject to terms-of-trade and flexible exchange rate shocks. This indicates that terms-of-trade and exchange rate volatility impacted the ability of national economies to service their debt. It is therefore prudent that policymakers and central bankers consider models that incorporate the use of trade and exchange rate volatility as a robust way of more accurately determining fiscal limits, which are a critical component in understanding governments' ability to service their debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Wright, Allan & Ramirez, Francisco A., 2020. "What are the Fiscal Limits for the Developing Economies of Central America and the Caribbean?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8269, Inter-American Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:8269
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uribe, Martin, 2006. "A fiscal theory of sovereign risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1857-1875, November.
    2. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    3. P. Marcelo Oviedo & Enrique Mendoza, 2004. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 647, Econometric Society.
    4. Marcelo Oviedo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2004. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency & Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer," 2004 Meeting Papers 14, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Keywords

    fiscal policy; debt;

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