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Arbeitsmarkt-Projektion 2010: Die Krise wird deutliche Spuren hinterlassen (Labour market forecast 2010: Economic crisis will leave its mark on the German labour market)

Author

Listed:
  • Bach, Hans-Uwe

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Hummel, Markus

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Klinger, Sabine

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Spitznagel, Eugen

    (IAB)

  • Zika, Gerd

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"Up to August 2009, the German labour market was almost unaffected by the economic crisis. Companies have tended to hoard labour in an unprecedented amount. Thus, productivity per hour and working time fell dramatically, whereas unit labour costs increased sharply. Since labour hoarding is costly and GDP growth is expected to rise by only 0.5 percent in 2010, the number of dismissals will probably increase during the Autumn and Winter of 2009/2010. As a consequence, employment may fall by 830,000 persons in 2010 and unemployment may rise by 640,000 persons up to a yearly average of 4.1 million. The short report forecasts and explains the developments on the German labour market in the near future." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Bach, Hans-Uwe & Hummel, Markus & Klinger, Sabine & Spitznagel, Eugen & Zika, Gerd, 2009. "Arbeitsmarkt-Projektion 2010: Die Krise wird deutliche Spuren hinterlassen (Labour market forecast 2010: Economic crisis will leave its mark on the German labour market)," IAB-Kurzbericht 200920, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:200920
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. Steffen Osterloh, 2008. "Accuracy and Properties of German Business Cycle Forecasts," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57.
    3. Bach, Hans-Uwe & Gartner, Hermann & Klinger, Sabine & Rothe, Thomas & Spitznagel, Eugen, 2009. "Die IAB-Prognose der kurzfristigen Entwicklung auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt : eine Darstellung der Methode auf Basis der Sommerprognose 2008 (The IAB forecast of short-term developments on the Germa," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200905, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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