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Type Indeterminacy: A Model of the KT(Kahneman-Tversky)-man

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  • Ariane Lambert Mogiliansky

    ()

  • Shmuel Zamir

    ()

  • Herve Zwirn

    ()

Abstract

In this note we propose to use the mathematical formalism of Quantum Mechanics to capture the idea that agents’ preferences, in addition to being typically uncertain, can also be indeterminate. They are determined (realized, and not merely revealed) only when the action takes place. An agent is described by a state which is a superposition of potential types (or preferences or behaviors). This superposed state is projected (or ”collapses”) onto one of the possible behaviors at the time of the interaction. In addition to the main goal of modelling uncertainty of preferences which is not due to lack of information, this formalism, seems to be adequate to describe widely observed phenomena like framing and instances of noncommutativity in patterns of behavior. We propose two experiments to test the theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariane Lambert Mogiliansky & Shmuel Zamir & Herve Zwirn, 2003. "Type Indeterminacy: A Model of the KT(Kahneman-Tversky)-man," Discussion Paper Series dp343, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  • Handle: RePEc:huj:dispap:dp343
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
    2. Faruk Gul & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2001. "Temptation and Self-Control," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1403-1435, November.
    3. McFadden, Daniel, 1999. "Rationality for Economists?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 73-105, December.
    4. Erev, Ido & Bornstein, Gary & Wallsten, Thomas S., 1993. "The Negative Effect of Probability Assessments on Decision Quality," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 78-94, June.
    5. Colin F. Camerer, 1997. "Progress in Behavioral Game Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 167-188, Fall.
    6. Selten, Reinhard, 1998. "Features of experimentally observed bounded rationality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 413-436, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Brandenburger, 2007. "A Connection Between Correlation in Game Theory and Quantum Mechanics," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001725, David K. Levine.
    2. V. Danilov & A. Lambert-Mogiliansky, 2010. "Expected utility theory under non-classical uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 25-47, February.
    3. Lora R. Todorova, 2012. "Quantum Risk Preferences in a Laboratory Experiment," FEMM Working Papers 120025, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    4. V. I. Danilov & A. Lambert-Mogiliansky, 2005. "Non-classical Measurement Theory: a Framework for Behavioral Sciences," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000000899, David K. Levine.
    5. Siegfried K. Berninghaus & Lora R. Todorova & Bodo Vogt, 2012. "How Sensitive is Strategy Selection in Coordination Games?," FEMM Working Papers 120020, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    6. Thomas Boyer-Kassem & Sébastien Duchêne & Eric Guerci, 2016. "Quantum-like models cannot account for the conjunction fallacy," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 81(4), pages 479-510, November.
    7. Dino Borie, 2013. "Expected utility theory with non-commutative probability theory," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(2), pages 295-315, October.
    8. Khrennikov, Andrei, 2015. "Quantum version of Aumann’s approach to common knowledge: Sufficient conditions of impossibility to agree on disagree," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 89-104.
    9. Jerry Busemeyer & Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky, 2009. "TI-games I: An exploration of Type Indeterminacy in strategic decision-making," PSE Working Papers halshs-00566780, HAL.
    10. Zabaleta, O.G. & Arizmendi, C.M., 2010. "Quantum dating market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(14), pages 2858-2863.
    11. V. I. Yukalov & D. Sornette, 2012. "Quantum decision making by social agents," Papers 1202.4918, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2015.
    12. Godfrey Cadogan, 2012. "Representation theory for risk on markowitz-tversky-kahneman topology," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 1-34.
    13. Emmanuel Haven, 2008. "Private Information and the ‘Information Function’: A Survey of Possible Uses," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 193-228, March.
    14. Jerry Busemeyer & Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky, 2009. "TI-games I: An exploration of Type Indeterminacy in strategic decision-making," Working Papers halshs-00566780, HAL.
    15. Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky & Jerome Busemeyer, 2012. "Quantum Type Indeterminacy in Dynamic Decision-Making: Self-Control through Identity Management," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 1-22, May.
    16. Boyer-Kassem, Thomas & Duchêne, Sébastien & Guerci, Eric, 2016. "Testing quantum-like models of judgment for question order effect," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 33-46.
    17. Haven, Emmanuel & Sozzo, Sandro, 2016. "A generalized probability framework to model economic agents' decisions under uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 297-303.
    18. Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky & François Dubois, 2015. "Transparency in Public Life. A Quantum Cognition Perspective," PSE Working Papers halshs-01064980, HAL.
    19. Vladimir Ivanovitch Danilov & Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky, 2005. "Non-classical measurement theory: a framework forbehavioral sciences," Working Papers halshs-00590714, HAL.
    20. repec:eee:ecomod:v:281:y:2014:i:c:p:38-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Vladimir Danilov, 2009. "Modelling of Non-Commuting Measurements," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 1-2, pages 10-36.
    22. Jérôme Busemeyer & Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky, 2012. "Quantum Type Indeterminacy in Dynamic Decision-Making: Self-control Through Identity Management," Working Papers halshs-00692024, HAL.
    23. Adam Brandenburger, 2008. "The Relationship Between Classical and Quantum Correlation in Games," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002312, David K. Levine.
    24. Jerome R. Busemeyer & Jörg Rieskamp, 2014. "Psychological research and theories on preferential choice," Chapters,in: Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 3, pages 49-72 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology

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