The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?
The Chinese statistical authorities have recently adjusted the Chinese GDP level and growth rate for the period 1993-2004 following China's first national economic census. However, their methodology used in the adjustment is opaque. Using a trend-deviation interpolation approach, this study has managed to replicate the basic procedures of the adjustment and reproduced the official estimates. Through this exercise, it has found that the estimates that could be obtained by the normal interpolation procedures were significantly and arbitrarily modified to satisfy certain needs. Based on some political economy argument, we attempt to explain why the adjustment had to leave the growth rate of 1998 intact and why it had to bypass the price issue and directly work on the real growth rate adjustment. Based on previous studies and other observations, we also challenge the census results on non-service industries.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wu, Harry X, 2000. "China's GDP Level and Growth Performance: Alternative Estimates and the Implications," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 46(4), pages 475-99, December.
- Wing Thye Woo, .
"Chinese Economic Growth: Sources And Prospects,"
Department of Economics
96-08, California Davis - Department of Economics.
- Wu, Harry X, 2002. "How Fast Has Chinese Industry Grown?--Measuring the Real Output of Chinese Industry, 1949-97," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(2), pages 179-204, June.
- Angus Maddison, 2006. "DO OFFICIAL STATISTICS EXAGGERATE CHINA's GDP GROWTH? A REPLY TO CARSTEN HOLZ," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(1), pages 121-126, 03.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hst:hstdps:d06-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tatsuji Makino)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.