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The Fiscal Compact and Current Account Patterns in Europe

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  • Stefan Behrendt

    (Graduate Programme "Global Financial Markets")

Abstract

This paper shall give an overview of the implications to the sectoral balances stemming from the implementation of the Fiscal Compact in the Euro area in 2013. Since there is now a more or less strict limit to deficit spending-absent from cyclical factors-some other sector has to make up for the reduction of the financial deficit of Euro area gov- ernments. While applying sensible estimates on the trajectories of the sectoral balances in the Euro area, I reach the conclusion that the only logical outlet for these (potentially) reduced deficits would be the for- eign sector, reflecting the inability of the private sector to run a sizeable surplus of investments over savings over the long-run. Under the sce- nario described in the paper, the Euro area would run a considerable current account surplus in the foreseeable future.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Behrendt, 2014. "The Fiscal Compact and Current Account Patterns in Europe," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2014-52, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    • Handle: RePEc:hlj:hljwrp:52-2014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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