Feast and Famine: Explaining Big Swings in the Hong Kong Economy between 1981 and 2007
On average between 1981 and 2007, output per capita in Hong Kong grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent. But economic performance over the period was far from even. Between 1987 and 1997, output per capita averaged 9.7 percent above its long run growth path. In 1997, the feast ended and the famine began. Over the next 11 years, output per capita averaged 5.2 percent below its long run path. This paper attempts to explain this big swing. We use two types of analysis. First, we use a nine-variable Bayesian Vector Autoregression and summarize the results as a set of stylized facts. Chief among these is the finding that economic activity in Hong Kong is highly sensitive to shocks of foreign origin. Second, we set our and estimate a dynamic, general equilibrium model which is able to account, at least qualitatively, for our stylized facts. We use the model to infer the relative importance of different shocks in accounting for feast and famine in Hong Kong.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 55th Floor , Two International Finance Centre , 8 Finance Street , Central, Hong Kong|
Phone: (852)2878 1978
Fax: (852)2878 7006
Web page: http://www.hkimr.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Loungani, Prakash & Mody, Ashoka & Razin, Assaf, 2002. "The Global Disconnect: The Role of Transactional Distance and Scale Economies in Gravity Equations," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 526-43, December.
- Simon J. Evenett, 2003.
"The Cross Border Mergers and Acquisitions Wave of the Late 1990s,"
NBER Working Papers
9655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Simon Evenett, 2004. "The Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions Wave of the Late 1990s," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 411-470 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rabin Hattari & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2008. "Trends and Drivers of Bilateral FDI Flows in Developing Asia," Working Papers 112008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- di Giovanni, Julian, 2005.
"What drives capital flows? The case of cross-border M&A activity and financial deepening,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 127-149, January.
- di Giovanni, Julian, 2002. "What Drives Capital Flows? The Case of Cross-Border M&A Activity and Financial Deepening," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt7nq6d7wp, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Julian di Giovanni & Contact: firstname.lastname@example.org, 2003. "What Drives Capital Flows? The Case of Cross-Border M&A Activity and Financial Deepening," International Trade 0303002, EconWPA.
- Gugler, Klaus & Mueller, Dennis C. & Weichselbaumer, Michael, 2012.
"The determinants of merger waves: An international perspective,"
International Journal of Industrial Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15.
- Gugler, Klaus & Mueller, Dennis C. & Weichselbaumer, Michael, 2008. "The Determinants of Merger Waves: An International Perspective," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-076, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
- David T Coe & Arvind Subramanian & Natalia T Tamirisa, 2007. "The Missing Globalization Puzzle: Evidence of the Declining Importance of Distance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 34-58, May.
- Rabin Hattari & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2012. "Sources Of Foreign Direct Investment Flows To Developing Asia: The Importance Of Time Zone," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 1250013-1-1.
- Olaf Unteroberdoerster & Cynthia Leung, 2008. "Hong Kong SAR as a Financial Center for Asia; Trends and Implications," IMF Working Papers 08/57, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:372009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.