Politics and Volatility
We investigate how politics (party orientation, national elections, and strength of democratic institutions) affect stock market volatility. We hypothesize that labor-intensive industries, industries with larger exposure to foreign trade, industries whose operations require efficient contracts, and industries susceptible to government expropriation are more sensitive to changes in political environment. Using a large panel of industry-country-year observations, we show that politically-sensitive industries exhibit higher volatilities during national elections. Volatility is also higher for labor-intensive industries under leftist governments. Moreover, governance-sensitive industries and industries under a higher risk of expropriation are more volatile when democratic institutions are weak. The rise in volatility is driven largely by systematic risk rather than firm-specific risk. The results are consistent with the 'peso problem' hypothesis that uncertainty about future government policies can increase stock market volatility.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2008|
|Note:||November 14, 2007, Preliminary and incomplete|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8603|
Web page: http://cei.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Roland Füss & Michael Bechtel, 2008. "Partisan politics and stock market performance: The effect of expected government partisanship on stock returns in the 2002 German federal election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 131-150, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:hitcei:2008-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Reiko Suzuki)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.