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Russia’S Water Resources 2030: Plausible Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Ozcan Saritas

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Liliana Proskuryakova

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • S Sivaev

    ()

Abstract

The research presented in this paper focuses on the sustainable use of water resources in Russia based on a Foresight study with a 20-year time horizon. The study uses a scenario-planning method to develop four trajectories: economic depression, economic stagnation, visionary future, and national priority. These four trajectories offer significantly different yet plausible alternative futures. The current paper draws upon the earlier horizon scanning activity, which identified a set of trends, weak signals and wild cards, along with their implications for water resources in Russia. Based on this work, it identifies key factors and indicators, which may characterize future developments in the following domains: (i) the sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and industry; and (iii) new water products and services. The evolution of variables and indicators will then be considered under the scenarios termed ‘Nearly perfect future’ (economic growth), ‘Problem conservation’ (economic stagnation), ‘Losses and accidents’ (economic depression), and ‘National priority’ trajectories. The paper concludes with a brief description of further research directions, including a discussion on the probability of the scenarios being implemented. Russian policy makers and water companies may use the scenarios to adapt (i.e. plan for timely responses), avert certain undesirable future developments, or approximate the visionary future of the sector

Suggested Citation

  • Ozcan Saritas & Liliana Proskuryakova & S Sivaev, 2015. "Russia’S Water Resources 2030: Plausible Scenarios," HSE Working papers WP BRP 42/STI/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:42sti2015
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    File URL: http://www.hse.ru/data/2015/07/23/1085956390/42STI2015.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ozcan Saritas & Liliana N. Proskuryakova & E. Kyzyngasheva, 2015. "Water Resources – an Analysis of Trends, Weak Siglans and Wild Cards with Implications for Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 35/STI/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liliana N. Proskuryakova, 2015. "Water Resources 2030: Policy Recommendations," HSE Working papers WP BRP 44/STI/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    water resources; sustainable water systems; water use; water goods and services; scenarios; Foresight; Russia.;

    JEL classification:

    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • M11 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Production Management
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • Q22 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Fishery
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q26 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources
    • Q27 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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