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A Dynamic Flexible Partial-Adjustment Model of International Diffusion of the Internet

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Abstract

The paper introduces a dynamic, flexible partial-adjustment model and uses it to analyze the diffusion of Internet connectivity. It specifies and estimates desired levels of Internet diffusion and the speed at which countries achieve the target levels. The target levels and speed of adjustment are both country and time specific. Factors affecting Internet diffusion across countries are identified, and, using nonlinear least squares, the Gompertz growth model is generalized and estimated using data on Internet users for 59 countries observed over the years 1995 to 2002. The empirical results show that infrastructure variables such as personal computer ownership and telephone service increase the equilibrium level of internet diffusion. The speed of adjustment toward a target level decreases over time. Regarding model performance, the generalized dynamic Gompertz model that accounts for unobserved country heterogeneity effects outperforms other, simpler and static model specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Minkyu & Heshmati, Almas, 2006. "A Dynamic Flexible Partial-Adjustment Model of International Diffusion of the Internet," Ratio Working Papers 99, The Ratio Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0099
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    File URL: http://www.ratio.se/pdf/wp/ah_internet.pdf
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    1. Heshmati, Almas, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Structure: Evidence from Swedish Micro and Small Firms," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0440, Stockholm School of Economics.
    2. Hargittai, Eszter, 1999. "Weaving the Western Web: explaining differences in Internet connectivity among OECD countries," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(10-11), pages 701-718, November.
    3. Kiiski, Sampsa & Pohjola, Matti, 2002. "Cross-country diffusion of the Internet," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 297-310, June.
    4. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 1995. "Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-215, June.
    5. Hubert Gatignon & Jehoshua Eliashberg & Thomas S. Robertson, 1989. "Modeling Multinational Diffusion Patterns: An Efficient Methodology," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 231-247.
    6. World Bank, 2004. "World Development Indicators 2004," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13890.
    7. Dixon, Robert J, 1980. "Hybrid Corn Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1451-1461, September.
    8. Edquist, Harald & Henrekson, Magnus, 2004. "Technological Breakthroughs and Productivity Growth," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0562, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 23 Jan 2006.
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    Cited by:

    1. Firas H. Al-Hammadany & Almas Heshmati, 2011. "Analysis of the Purpose of Using Internet in Iraq: A Multinomial Logit Model," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 1(6), pages 1-41, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    technology diffusion; Internet; panel data; technology adoption; Gompertz model;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software
    • L96 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Telecommunications
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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