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Exam Luck and Human Capital Accumulation

Author

Listed:
  • Franco, Catalina

    (Centre for Applied Research, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Povea, Erika

    (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

We show that subtle standardized test design features can shape long-term educational trajectories. Exploiting random variation in the placement of correct answers in a Colombian college entrance exam, we find that students are 5% less likely to answer correctly when the correct option appears last (option D). This pattern is economically consequential: those assigned to “unlucky” booklets with more Ds in math score 0.011 SD lower overall and are 3% less likely to gain admission to their first-choice major. The mechanism is consistent with students overlooking options at the bottom of the list when scanning answers sequentially under time pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Franco, Catalina & Povea, Erika, 2024. "Exam Luck and Human Capital Accumulation," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 4/2024, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics, revised 11 Sep 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2024_004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality

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