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Is China an Optimum Currency Area?




This paper analyzes regional differences across Chinese regions, employing an optimum currency area framework. Empirically, we consider the cross-sectional correlation measure of Solnik & Roulet (2000) when examining data on GDP, trade, inflation and regional budget between 1991 and 2001. Our preliminary results suggest that China probably is more of an optimum currency area than first expected. It is debatable, though, whether Hong Kong and Macao are appropriate as candidates. The results also indicate that there might be other constellations of regions that could be closer to an optimum currency area than the current Yuan area.

Suggested Citation

  • Byström, Hans & Olofsdotter , Karin & Söderström, Lars, 2005. "Is China an Optimum Currency Area?," Working Papers 2005:6, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2005_006

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lars Jonung & Fredrik Sjöholm, 1999. "Should Finland and Sweden Form a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 683-700, July.
    2. Bayoumi, T. & Eichengreen, B., 1994. "One Money or Many? Analysing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Princeton Studies in International Economics 76, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    3. George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
    4. Lafrance, Robert & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "Optimal Currency Areas: A Review of the Recent Literature," Staff Working Papers 99-16, Bank of Canada.
    5. Ajit Bhalla & Shujie Yao & Zongyi Zhang, 2003. "Regional economic performance in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 25-39, March.
    6. Hal Hill, 2002. "Spatial Disparities in Developing East Asia: a survey," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 16(1), pages 10-35, May.
    7. Johnson, D. Gale, 2003. "Provincial migration in China in the 1990s," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 22-31.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabrizio Carmignani & James S. Laurenceson, 2013. "Provincial business cycles and fiscal policy in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(2), pages 323-340, April.
    2. Dougherty, Sean & Herd, Richard & He, Ping, 2007. "Has a private sector emerged in China's industry? Evidence from a quarter of a million Chinese firms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 309-334.

    More about this item


    China; optimum currency area; regional developments; cross-sectional correlation;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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