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Earnings expectations and educational sorting. An ex-ante perspective on returns to university education

Author

Listed:
  • Angelov, Nikolay

    (Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies (UCFS)

  • Johansson, Per

    (Uppsala University (UCLS and Statistics))

  • Pihl, Ariel

    (Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg)

  • Lindahl, Mikael

    (Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg)

Abstract

We estimate means and distributions of ex-ante treatment effects for obtaining university education relative to high school. To achieve this, we conducted a survey which elicited earnings expectations associated with counterfactual educational choices for a sample of high-school students in Stockholm. We find average ex-ante returns to university to be 36%, with higher returns for females, those with high SES backgrounds, and high math scores. The returns vary considerably and are highest for those that choose university, but also positive and sizable for those who do not. Our results imply that students sort into education based on their comparative advantage. Nevertheless, our results suggest that an OLS estimator of the returns to university education should be expected to be quite similar to the average treatment on the treated effect for university education. Additionally, we find evidence that the positive ex-ante earnings returns to high paying fields, among those that do not choose these fields, can (partly) be reconciled by individuals expecting to be compensated through higher non-pecuniary returns to those fields.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelov, Nikolay & Johansson, Per & Pihl, Ariel & Lindahl, Mikael, 2022. "Earnings expectations and educational sorting. An ex-ante perspective on returns to university education," Working Paper Series 2022:5, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2022_005
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    JEL classification:

    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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