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Climatic Conditions and Productivity: An Impact Evaluation in Pre-industrial England

Author

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  • Stéphane Auray

    (EQUIPPE - Economie Quantitative, Intégration, Politiques Publiques et Econométrie - Université de Lille, Droit et Santé - PRES Université Lille Nord de France - Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies, CIRPEE - ULaval - Université Laval [Québec], CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Aurélien Eyquem

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Frédéric Jouneau-Sion

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this paper, we bridge economic data and climatic time series to assess the vulnerability of a pre-industrial economy to changes in climatic conditions. We propose an economic model to extract a measure of total productivity from English data (real wages and land rents) in the pre-industrial period. This measure of total productivity is then related to temperatures and precipitations. We find that lower (respectively higher) precipitations (resp. temperatures) enhance productivity. Further, temperatures also have non-linear effects on productivity : large temperature variations lower productivity. We perform counterfactual exercises and quantify the effects of large increases in temperatures on productivity, GDP and welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Frédéric Jouneau-Sion, 2014. "Climatic Conditions and Productivity: An Impact Evaluation in Pre-industrial England," Working Papers halshs-01098763, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01098763
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01098763
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hercowitz, Zvi & Sampson, Michael, 1991. "Output Growth, the Real Wage, and Employment Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1215-1237, December.
    2. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
    3. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    5. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Jouneau-Sion, Frédéric, 2014. "Wars and capital destruction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 224-240.
    6. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Damette & Claude Diebolt & Stephane Goutte & Umberto Triacca, 2020. "Cliometrics of Climate Change: A Natural Experiment on the Little Ice Age," Working Papers 02-20, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    2. Gallic, Ewen & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2017. "Weather Shocks, Climate Change and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 81230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. José L. Martínes-González, 2015. "Did Climate Change Influence English Agricultural Development? (1645-1740)," Working Papers 0075, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climatic conditions; TFP shocks; real wages; real rents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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