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Climatic Conditions and Productivity: An Impact Evaluation in Pre-industrial England

Listed author(s):
  • Stéphane Auray
  • Aurélien Eyquem
  • Frédéric Jouneau-Sion

In this paper, we bridge economic data and climatic time series to assess the vulnerability of a pre-industrial economy to changes in climatic conditions. We propose an economic model to extract a measure of total productivity from English data (real wages and land rents) in the pre-industrial period. This measure of total productivity is then related to temperatures and precipitations. We find that lower (respectively higher) precipitations (resp. temperatures) enhance productivity. Furthermore, temperatures also have non-linear effects on productivity: large temperature variations lower productivity.We perform counterfactual exercises and quantify the effects of large increases in temperatures on productivity, GDP and welfare.

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File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.15609/annaeconstat2009.121-122.261
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Article provided by GENES in its journal Annals Of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): (2016)
Issue (Month): 121-122 ()
Pages: 261-277

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Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2016:i:121-122:p:261-277
DOI: 10.15609/annaeconstat2009.121-122.261
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  1. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Hercovitz, Z. & Sampson, M., 1989. "Output Growth, The Real Wage, And Employment Fluctuations," RCER Working Papers 179, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  3. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Frédéric Jouneau-Sion, 2014. "Wars and capital destruction," Post-Print halshs-00957988, HAL.
  4. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2001. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies:The Role of Interest Rates," Working Papers 01-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
  6. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
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