Climatic Conditions and Productivity: An Impact Evaluation in Pre-industrial England
In this paper, we bridge economic data and climatic time series to assess the vulnerability of a pre-industrial economy to changes in climatic conditions. We propose an economic model to extract a measure of total productivity from English data (real wages and land rents) in the pre-industrial period. This measure of total productivity is then related to temperatures and precipitations. We find that lower (respectively higher) precipitations (resp. temperatures) enhance productivity. Furthermore, temperatures also have non-linear effects on productivity: large temperature variations lower productivity.We perform counterfactual exercises and quantify the effects of large increases in temperatures on productivity, GDP and welfare.
Volume (Year): (2016)
Issue (Month): 121-122 ()
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