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Destabilization Effect of International Trade in a Perfect Foresight Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

  • Kazuo Nishimura

    (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University - Kyoto University)

  • Alain Venditti

    ()

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM), EDHEC Business School - Département Comptabilité, Droit, Finance et Economie)

  • Makoto Yano

    (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University - Kyoto University)

In the present paper, we consider a two-country, two-good, two-factor general equilibrium model with CIES non-linear preferences, asymmetric technologies across countries and decreasing returns to scale. It is shown that aggregate instability and endogenous fluctuations may occur due to international trade. In particular, we prove that the integration into a common market on which countries trade the produced good and the capital input may lead to period-two cycles even when the closed-economy equilibrium is saddle-point stable in both countries.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00796692.

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Date of creation: Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00796692
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  1. Baxter, Marianne, 1996. "Are Consumer Durables Important for Business Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 147-55, February.
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  14. Makoto Yano, 2012. "The von Neumann–McKenzie facet and the Jones Duality theorem in two-sector optimal growth," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 8(2), pages 213-226, 06.
  15. Nishimura, Kazuo & Yano, Makoto, 1993. "Interlinkage in the Endogenous Real Business Cycles of International Economies," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 151-68, January.
  16. Venditti, Alain, 1996. "Hopf bifurcation and quasi-periodic dynamics in discrete multisector optimal growth models," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 267-291, September.
  17. Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano, 2006. "Endogenous Fluctuations In Two-Country Models," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(4), pages 516-532.
  18. Takahashi, Harutaka & Mashiyama, Koichi & Sakagami, Tomoya, 2012. "Does The Capital Intensity Matter? Evidence From The Postwar Japanese Economy And Other Oecd Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 103-116, April.
  19. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 1143-1179.
  20. Andrei A. Levchenko & Julian di Giovanni, 2009. "International Trade and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies," 2009 Meeting Papers 491, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Claustre Bajona & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2006. "Demographics in dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin models: overlapping generations versus infinitely lived consumers," Staff Report 377, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  22. Nishimura, Kazuo & Yano, Makoto, 1995. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos in Optimal Growth: An Example," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 981-1001, July.
  23. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2011. "Country Size, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies," NBER Working Papers 17335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Ghiglino, Christian & Venditti, Alain, 2007. "Wealth inequality, preference heterogeneity and macroeconomic volatility in two-sector economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 414-441, July.
  25. Makoto Yano, 1990. "Von neumann facets and the dynamic stability of perfect foresight equilibrium paths in neo-classical trade models," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 27-69, February.
  26. Kenji Sato & Makoto Yano, 2013. "Optimal ergodic chaos under slow capital depreciation," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 57-67, 03.
  27. Marco Terrones & Eswar Prasad & M. Ayhan Kose, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, International Monetary Fund.
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  29. Tapan Mitra & Gerhard Sorger, 1999. "Rationalizing Policy Functions by Dynamic Optimization," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 375-392, March.
  30. Baierla, Gary & Nishimura, Kazuo & Yano, Makoto, 1998. "The role of capital depreciation in multi-sectoral models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 467-479, January.
  31. Yano, Makoto, 1984. "Competitive Equilibria on Turnpikes in a McKenzie Economy, I: A Neighborhood Turnpike Theorem," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(3), pages 695-717, October.
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  33. Makoto Yano, 1998. "On the Dual Stability of a von Neumann Facet and the Inefficacy of Temporary Fiscal Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 427-452, March.
  34. Yano, Makoto, 1984. "The primal route to the turnpike and asymptotic stability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 225-234, December.
  35. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1979. "The hopf bifurcation and the existence and stability of closed orbits in multisector models of optimal economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 421-444, December.
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