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Macroeconomic Volatility and Trade in OLG Economies

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  • Antoine Le Riche

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effect of free-trade integration on the dynamical properties of economies. We formulate a two-country two-good two-factor overlapping generations model where countries only differ with respect to their discount rate. The main contribution of this paper is to show that opening to international trade may have a destabilizing effect. Especially we prove that, under perfect mobility of labor and capital between countries, sunspot cycles can occur in the trade regime although one country is characterized by saddle-point stability in the autarky regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Le Riche, 2016. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Trade in OLG Economies," Working Papers halshs-01079773, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01079773
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01079773v3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baxter, Marianne, 1996. "Are Consumer Durables Important for Business Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 147-155, February.
    2. Hu, Yunfang & Mino, Kazuo, 2013. "Trade structure and belief-driven fluctuations in a global economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 414-424.
    3. Nishimura, Kazuo & Shimomura, Koji, 2002. "Trade and Indeterminacy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 244-260, July.
    4. Drugeon, Jean-Pierre & Nourry, Carine & Venditti, Alain, 2010. "On efficiency and local uniqueness in two-sector OLG economies," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 120-144, January.
    5. Claustre Bajona & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2006. "Demographics in dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin models: overlapping generations versus infinitely lived consumers," Staff Report 377, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Galor, Oded, 1992. "A Two-Sector Overlapping-Generations Model: A Global Characterization of the Dynamical System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1351-1386, November.
    7. Nicholas C. S. Sim & Kong-Weng Ho, 2007. "Autarkic indeterminacy and trade determinacy," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 3(4), pages 315-328.
    8. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
    9. Takahashi, Harutaka & Mashiyama, Koichi & Sakagami, Tomoya, 2012. "Does The Capital Intensity Matter? Evidence From The Postwar Japanese Economy And Other Oecd Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 103-116, April.
    10. Kazumichi Iwasa & Kazuo Nishimura, 2014. "Dynamic two-country Heckscher–Ohlin model with externality," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 10(1), pages 53-74, March.
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    Keywords

    two-sector OLG model; two-country; local indeterminacy; endogenous fluctuations; dynamic efficiency;

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