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Modélisation de la demande de gaz naturel dans le secteur domestique : France, Italie, Royaume-Uni. 1978-1989

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  • Isabelle Cadoret

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

  • Jean-Luc Karnik

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

Abstract

Le gaz naturel a pris une place prépondérante en Europe. Dans des pays tels que la France, l'Italie et le Royaume Uni, le gaz a pénétré tous les marchés, notamment le marché domestique. Nous étudions les facteurs explicatifs de la demande de gaz dans le secteur domestique en France, en Italie et au Royaume Uni par le biais de modèles économétriques. L 'application du modèle translog met en évidence les relations de substitution et de complémentarité des énergies. Les résultats sont différents selon les pays. Ils sont liés à la politique énergétique adoptée par le pays, à ses ressources gazières et au niveau de développement du marché domestique du gaz. Pour estimer la demande de gaz totale du secteur domestique et la demande de gaz pour le chauffage nous avons choisi une spécification log-linéaire. Nos estimations montrent que lorsque le gaz pénètre le marché domestique, l'évolution de la demande de gaz suit l'accroissement du réseau de distribution. Lorsque le marché est saturé, la demande évolue en fonction du prix des énergies et du revenu des ménages.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabelle Cadoret & Jean-Luc Karnik, 1991. "Modélisation de la demande de gaz naturel dans le secteur domestique : France, Italie, Royaume-Uni. 1978-1989," Working Papers hal-02432680, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02432680
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-02432680
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1975. "Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 367-383, June.
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    3. Anthony Paris, 2016. "The Effect of Biofuels on the Link between Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Smooth Transition Cointegration Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-5, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

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