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A design methodology for scenario-analysis in urban freight modelling

Author

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  • Christian Ambrosini

    () (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu

    () (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Florence Toilier

    () (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Urban goods movement modelling is a popular subject in urban logistics research. However, most models remain under-used because practitioners have difficulties to apply them to simulate urban policies and their impacts on transport flows, mainly when the assessed situations are different from the initial usage of the mode. This paper aims to answer to that issue by proposing a methodology of scenario construction and assessment using current models and tools. The methodological contribution of the paper arises on defining the main elements of a policy-based scenario and on developing a procedure to build the inputs a model needs to simulate the impacts of policy-oriented strategies on urban goods transport flows. First, the main elements policy makers can take into account when defining middle term strategies are identified. Then, a scenario construction procedure is proposed, able to build reference scenarios and trend scenarios. An example for the urban area of Lyon is proposed. According to the reference scenario, it becomes possible to compare and understand urban goods movement changes, by implementing the model introducing variations, such as activity relocation or urban distribution centre whose impacts concern not only the freight flows themselves but also the whole urban logistics organisation. In this way, the proposed methodology is adapted to policy-oriented strategic and tactical planning, mainly for public stakeholders.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Ambrosini & Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu & Florence Toilier, 2013. "A design methodology for scenario-analysis in urban freight modelling," Post-Print halshs-00843286, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00843286
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00843286
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alain Bonnafous & Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu & Jean-Louis Routhier, 2013. "An alternative UGM Paradigm to O-D matrices: the FRETURB model," Post-Print halshs-00844652, HAL.
    2. Nuzzolo, Agostino & Crisalli, Umberto & Comi, Antonio, 2012. "A trip chain order model for simulating urban freight restocking," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 50, pages 1-7.
    3. Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu & Joëlle Morana, 2010. "Are City Logistics Solutions Sustainable? The Cityporto case," Post-Print halshs-00530016, HAL.
    4. Comi, Antonio & Delle Site, Paolo & Filippi, Francesco & Nuzzolo, Agostino, 2012. "Urban Freight Transport Demand Modelling: a State of the Art," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 51, pages 1-8.
    5. Francesco Russo & Antonio Comi, 2010. "A modelling system to simulate goods movements at an urban scale," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(6), pages 987-1009, November.
    6. Hunt, J.D. & Stefan, K.J., 2007. "Tour-based microsimulation of urban commercial movements," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 981-1013, November.
    7. Alain Bonnafous, 1989. "Le siècle des ténèbres de l'économie," Post-Print halshs-00291521, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu & Pierre Basck & Eleonora Morganti, 2013. "Urban logistics solutions and financing mechanisms: a scenario assessment analysis," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 54, pages 1-11.
    2. Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu, 2014. "Costs and benefits of railway urban logistics: a prospective social cost benefit analysis," Working Papers halshs-01056135, HAL.
    3. Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu & Pierre Basck & Eleonora Morganti, 2013. "Urban logistics solutions and financing mechanisms: a scenario assessment analysis," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 54, pages 1-11.
    4. Park, Hyeongjun & Park, Dongjoo & Jeong, In-Jae, 2016. "An effects analysis of logistics collaboration in last-mile networks for CEP delivery services," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 115-125.
    5. Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu & Aurélie Mercier, 2013. "A combined people-freight accessibility approach for urban retailing and leisure planning at strategic level," Post-Print halshs-00919537, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Urban goods movement; transport modelling; scenario construction; urban policy; decision support;

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