Long-Term Planning of Electrical Distribution Grids: How Load Uncertainty and Flexibility Affect the Investment Timing

Due to the rise of smart grids, new players and services are emerging and can have an impact on the decision-making process in distribution networks, which, over the past decades, were only driven by linear demand growth with a low level of uncertainties. Nowadays, the evolution of distribution networks and investment decisions (conductors and transformers) can no longer be based solely on deterministic assumptions of load evolution since there is a high level of uncertainties related to the development of electrical loads such as electric vehicles. In this paper, we focus on the uncertainty of the peak power, key elements for triggering an investment, and the flexibility to choose between different topologies of electric networks. To solve this problem, we apply a real option approach and provide an analytical model with closed-form solutions that allows a full treatment of the dynamic aspects of the decision to reconsider the topology of the network. Moreover, through a comparative statics analysis, we infer the sensitivity of the option value to modify the network with respect to the volatility of the peak power, the associated investment cost or other types of costs of power losses, the growth rate, or the discount rate.