IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v318y2022ics0306261922004937.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Valuation of compound real options for co-investment in residential battery systems

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, Yiju
  • Chapman, Archie C.
  • Verbič, Gregor

Abstract

The process of evaluating investments by electricity utilities to subsidize residential battery installations in distribution networks is challenging, because finding efficient investment plans involves reasoning over various sources of uncertainty and consideration of different sizing, location and timing options. This work proposes a novel financial framework using real options valuation (ROV) to solve the optimal investment problem for subsidizing residential battery installations, considering compound options including the option to delay the investment and its subsequent option (expand). We incorporate random variations in PV generation and load behaviour, making use of Monte Carlo (MC) power flow analysis that incorporates battery scheduling profiles. Specifically, the ROV framework solves stochastic power flow analysis with battery scheduling in a forward-looking MC model, and determines the optimal plan for executing the options that maximize the investment value using backward induction over all MC paths. However, this approach to MC becomes computationally prohibitive when battery operational profiles are generated by optimization-based home energy management. To reduce the computational burden, we use policy function approximation to provide fast battery operational profiles, drawing on machine learning methods that reduce MC computation time by 95%. Compared to standard financial analysis, the proposed model allows ROV to capture all uncertainties while allowing utilities to make contingent decisions to maximize the benefits from subsidizing residential battery storage.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Yiju & Chapman, Archie C. & Verbič, Gregor, 2022. "Valuation of compound real options for co-investment in residential battery systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:318:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922004937
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119111
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922004937
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119111?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Longxi & Cao, Xilin, 2022. "Comprehensive effectiveness assessment of energy storage incentive mechanisms for PV-ESS projects based on compound real options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    2. Ritzenhofen, Ingmar & Spinler, Stefan, 2016. "Optimal design of feed-in-tariffs to stimulate renewable energy investments under regulatory uncertainty — A real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 76-89.
    3. Mahmoud A. Eissa & Boping Tian, 2017. "Lobatto-Milstein Numerical Method in Application of Uncertainty Investment of Solar Power Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Gebbran, Daniel & Mhanna, Sleiman & Ma, Yiju & Chapman, Archie C. & Verbič, Gregor, 2021. "Fair coordination of distributed energy resources with Volt-Var control and PV curtailment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    5. Penizzotto, F. & Pringles, R. & Olsina, F., 2019. "Real options valuation of photovoltaic power investments in existing buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.
    7. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Garcés, Francisco, 2015. "Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 215-226.
    8. Lai, Chun Sing & Locatelli, Giorgio, 2021. "Valuing the option to prototype: A case study with Generation Integrated Energy Storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    9. Kitzing, Lena & Juul, Nina & Drud, Michael & Boomsma, Trine Krogh, 2017. "A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 83-96.
    10. Ma, Yiju & Swandi, Kevin & Chapman, Archie C. & Verbič, Gregor, 2020. "Multi-stage compound real options valuation in residential PV-Battery investment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    11. Ma, Yiju & Azuatalam, Donald & Power, Thomas & Chapman, Archie C. & Verbič, Gregor, 2019. "A novel probabilistic framework to study the impact of photovoltaic-battery systems on low-voltage distribution networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    12. Ida Bakke & Stein-Erik Fleten & Lars Ivar Hagfors & Verena Hagspiel & Beate Norheim & Sonja Wogrin, 2016. "Investment in electric energy storage under uncertainty: a real options approach," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 483-500, July.
    13. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Linnerud, Kristin, 2015. "Market and policy risk under different renewable electricity support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 435-448.
    14. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Chen, H.T., 2017. "Optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments: The case of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 873-883.
    15. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mombello, Bruno & Olsina, Fernando & Pringles, Rolando, 2023. "Valuing photovoltaic power plants by compound real options," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Marie-Cécile Alvarez-Herault & Jean-Pierre Dib & Oana Ionescu & Bertrand Raison, 2022. "Long-Term Planning of Electrical Distribution Grids: How Load Uncertainty and Flexibility Affect the Investment Timing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-27, August.
    3. Mo, Jianlei & Tu, Qiang & Wang, Jianing, 2023. "Carbon pricing and enterprise productivity-The role of price stabilization mechanism," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.
    2. Yiju Ma & Kevin Swandi & Archie Chapman & Gregor Verbic, 2019. "Multi-Stage Compound Real Options Valuation in Residential PV-Battery Investment," Papers 1910.09132, arXiv.org.
    3. Ma, Yiju & Swandi, Kevin & Chapman, Archie C. & Verbič, Gregor, 2020. "Multi-stage compound real options valuation in residential PV-Battery investment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    4. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    5. Assereto, Martina & Byrne, Julie, 2021. "No real option for solar in Ireland: A real option valuation of utility scale solar investment in Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Linnerud, Kristin & Molnár, Peter & Tandberg Nygaard, Maria, 2016. "Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 498-506.
    7. Hu, Junfei & Chen, Huanyue & Zhou, Peng & Guo, Peng, 2022. "Optimal subsidy level for waste-to-energy investment considering flexibility and uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    9. Sun, Bo & Fan, Boyang & Zhang, Yifan & Xie, Jingdong, 2023. "Investment decisions and strategies of China's energy storage technology under policy uncertainty: A real options approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    10. Zhang, M.M. & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Ding, H., 2019. "Evaluating uncertain investment decisions in low-carbon transition toward renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 1049-1060.
    11. Mariia Kozlova & Alena Lohrmann, 2021. "Steering Renewable Energy Investments in Favor of Energy System Reliability: A Call for a Hybrid Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Mombello, Bruno & Olsina, Fernando & Pringles, Rolando, 2023. "Valuing photovoltaic power plants by compound real options," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    13. Finjord, Fredrik & Hagspiel, Verena & Lavrutich, Maria & Tangen, Marius, 2018. "The impact of Norwegian-Swedish green certificate scheme on investment behavior: A wind energy case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 373-389.
    14. Sendstad, Lars H. & Hagspiel, Verena & Mikkelsen, Wilhelm Jebsen & Ravndal, Ruben & Tveitstøl, Martin, 2022. "The impact of subsidy retraction on European renewable energy investments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    15. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    16. Dimanchev, Emil & Fleten, Stein-Erik & MacKenzie, Don & Korpås, Magnus, 2023. "Accelerating electric vehicle charging investments: A real options approach to policy design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    17. Zhang, Ruixiaoxiao & Shimada, Koji & Ni, Meng & Shen, Geoffrey Q.P. & Wong, Johnny K.W., 2020. "Low or No subsidy? Proposing a regional power grid based wind power feed-in tariff benchmark price mechanism in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Yang, Changhui & Fu, Yuting & He, Lijun & Jiang, Qi & Cui, Yangyu, 2024. "Real options analysis for regional investment decisions of household PV-ESS in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    19. Carmen Schiel & Simon Glöser-Chahoud & Frank Schultmann, 2019. "A real option application for emission control measures," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 89(3), pages 291-325, April.
    20. Barbara Glensk & Reinhard Madlener, 2019. "Energiewende @ Risk: On the Continuation of Renewable Power Generation at the End of Public Policy Support," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:318:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922004937. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.