Modelling the impact of different front-of-package nutrition labels on mortality from non-communicable chronic disease

Background: Front-of-Package nutrition labels (FoPLs) are intended to help reduce the incidence of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases through an improvement in diet quality. FoPLs have been shown to improve the nutritional quality of purchases and have been associated with improved diet quality, which is in turn associated with reduced risk of non-communicable diseases. However, the potential impact of FoPLs on reducing mortality from chronic diseases has never been estimated. Methods: Data from a laboratory experimental economics test were used to investigate the effects of five different FoPLs (Nutri-Score, Health Star Rating system, Multiple Traffic lights, Reference intakes and SENS (Système d'Etiquetage Nutritionnel Simplifié)) on the nutritional quality of household purchases. The relative differences in nutrient content and composition of food purchases were then applied to dietary intakes using data from an observational study, thus yielding estimates for ‘reference' and ‘labelled' diets. A macro-simulation study using the PRIME model was then conducted to estimate the impact of the modification in dietary intake as a result of FoPL use on mortality from diet-related non-communicable diseases. Results: The use of FoPLs led to a substantial reduction in mortality from chronic diseases. Approximately 3.4% of all deaths from diet-related non-communicable diseases was estimated to be avoidable when the Nutri-Score FoPL was used. The remaining FoPLs likewise resulted in mortality reduction, although to a lesser extent: Health Star Rating system (2.8%), Reference Intakes (1.9%), Multiple Traffic Lights (1.6%), and SENS (1.1%). Conclusions: FoPLs have the potential to help decrease mortality from diet-related non-communicable diseases, and the Nutri-Score appears to be the most efficient among the five formats tested.