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Quantification of the Energy Efficiency Gap in the Swedish Residential Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Eoin Ó Broin

    () (Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg], CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech)

  • Érika Mata

    () (Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg])

  • Jonas Nässén

    () (Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg])

  • Filip Johnsson

    () (Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg])

Abstract

We present a method for quantifying the energy efficiency gap ex-ante. To do this we define the energy efficiency gap as being the difference between the ex-ante market and techno-economic energy savings potentials. The estimation of market potential is based on top-down (econometric) modelling of energy demand using data from the period 1970–2005. The techno-economic estimates are made using a bottom-up building stock model (ECCABS), to assess the effects and cost-efficiency of various energy efficiency measures. Common to these two modelling approaches are two scenarios of energy prices, which differ only with respect to the carbon tax component. We implement the method for the case of useful energy demand for space and water heating in the Swedish residential sector up to 2030. In comparison to the level of energy use in 2005 (74 TWh), the top-down model predicts for 2030 reductions in demand for the two price scenarios of 17 TWh and 21 TWh, respectively. The bottom-up model predicts corresponding reductions in demand of 25 TWh and 31 TWh, respectively. Thus, there is an energy efficiency gap between the two models of at least 8 TWh in 2030. An implicit discount rate of 10% would render the results from the bottom-up modelling identical to those from the top-down modelling. However the presence of the energy efficiency gap indicates that there is a need for enhanced policies in order to make future reductions in energy demand reach the levels predicted by the bottom-up modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Eoin Ó Broin & Érika Mata & Jonas Nässén & Filip Johnsson, 2015. "Quantification of the Energy Efficiency Gap in the Swedish Residential Sector," Post-Print hal-01219283, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01219283
    DOI: 10.1007/s12053-015-9323-9
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01219283v2
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    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01219283v2/document
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nässén, Jonas & Sprei, Frances & Holmberg, John, 2008. "Stagnating energy efficiency in the Swedish building sector--Economic and organisational explanations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3814-3822, October.
    2. Giraudet, Louis-Gaëtan & Guivarch, Céline & Quirion, Philippe, 2012. "Exploring the potential for energy conservation in French households through hybrid modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 426-445.
    3. Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik, 1998. "Integrating the bottom-up and top-down approach to energy-economy modelling: the case of Denmark," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 443-461, September.
    4. Mata, Érika & Sasic Kalagasidis, Angela & Johnsson, Filip, 2013. "Energy usage and technical potential for energy saving measures in the Swedish residential building stock," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 404-414.
    5. Nic Rivers & Mark Jaccard, 2005. "Combining Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches to Energy-Economy Modeling Using Discrete Choice Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 83-106.
    6. Urge-Vorsatz, Diana & Novikova, Aleksandra, 2008. "Potentials and costs of carbon dioxide mitigation in the world's buildings," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 642-661, February.
    7. Koopmans, Carl C. & te Velde, Dirk Willem, 2001. "Bridging the energy efficiency gap: using bottom-up information in a top-down energy demand model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 57-75, January.
    8. Haas, Reinhard & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 421-442, September.
    9. William D. Nordhaus, 1991. "The Cost of Slowing Climate Change: a Survey," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 37-66.
    10. Jaffe, Adam B. & Stavins, Robert N., 1994. "The energy-efficiency gap What does it mean?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 804-810, October.
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    Keywords

    Ex-ante; Heating; Top-down; Residential; Energy efficiency gap; Bottom-up;

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