IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01219283.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quantification of the Energy Efficiency Gap in the Swedish Residential Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Eoin Ó Broin

    (Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg], CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Érika Mata

    (Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg])

  • Jonas Nässén

    (Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg])

  • Filip Johnsson

    (Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg])

Abstract

We present a method for quantifying the energy efficiency gap ex-ante. To do this we define the energy efficiency gap as being the difference between the ex-ante market and techno-economic energy savings potentials. The estimation of market potential is based on top-down (econometric) modelling of energy demand using data from the period 1970–2005. The techno-economic estimates are made using a bottom-up building stock model (ECCABS), to assess the effects and cost-efficiency of various energy efficiency measures. Common to these two modelling approaches are two scenarios of energy prices, which differ only with respect to the carbon tax component. We implement the method for the case of useful energy demand for space and water heating in the Swedish residential sector up to 2030. In comparison to the level of energy use in 2005 (74 TWh), the top-down model predicts for 2030 reductions in demand for the two price scenarios of 17 TWh and 21 TWh, respectively. The bottom-up model predicts corresponding reductions in demand of 25 TWh and 31 TWh, respectively. Thus, there is an energy efficiency gap between the two models of at least 8 TWh in 2030. An implicit discount rate of 10% would render the results from the bottom-up modelling identical to those from the top-down modelling. However the presence of the energy efficiency gap indicates that there is a need for enhanced policies in order to make future reductions in energy demand reach the levels predicted by the bottom-up modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Eoin Ó Broin & Érika Mata & Jonas Nässén & Filip Johnsson, 2015. "Quantification of the Energy Efficiency Gap in the Swedish Residential Sector," Post-Print hal-01219283, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01219283
    DOI: 10.1007/s12053-015-9323-9
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01219283v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01219283v2/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12053-015-9323-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giraudet, Louis-Gaëtan & Guivarch, Céline & Quirion, Philippe, 2012. "Exploring the potential for energy conservation in French households through hybrid modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 426-445.
    2. Nässén, Jonas & Sprei, Frances & Holmberg, John, 2008. "Stagnating energy efficiency in the Swedish building sector--Economic and organisational explanations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3814-3822, October.
    3. Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik, 1998. "Integrating the bottom-up and top-down approach to energy-economy modelling: the case of Denmark," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 443-461, September.
    4. Nic Rivers & Mark Jaccard, 2005. "Combining Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches to Energy-Economy Modeling Using Discrete Choice Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 83-106.
    5. Wilson, Deborah & Swisher, Joel, 1993. "Exploring the gap : Top-down versus bottom-up analyses of the cost of mitigating global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 249-263, March.
    6. Mata, Érika & Sasic Kalagasidis, Angela & Johnsson, Filip, 2013. "Energy usage and technical potential for energy saving measures in the Swedish residential building stock," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 404-414.
    7. Urge-Vorsatz, Diana & Novikova, Aleksandra, 2008. "Potentials and costs of carbon dioxide mitigation in the world's buildings," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 642-661, February.
    8. Swan, Lukas G. & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2009. "Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1819-1835, October.
    9. Koopmans, Carl C. & te Velde, Dirk Willem, 2001. "Bridging the energy efficiency gap: using bottom-up information in a top-down energy demand model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 57-75, January.
    10. Haas, Reinhard & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 421-442, September.
    11. William D. Nordhaus, 1991. "The Cost of Slowing Climate Change: a Survey," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 37-66.
    12. Jaffe, Adam B. & Stavins, Robert N., 1994. "The energy-efficiency gap What does it mean?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 804-810, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ó Broin, Eoin & Nässén, Jonas & Johnsson, Filip, 2015. "The influence of price and non-price effects on demand for heating in the EU residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 146-158.
    2. Khanam, Momtaj & Daim, Tugrul, 2021. "A market diffusion potential (MDP) assessment model for residential energy efficient (EE) technologies in the U.S," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giraudet, Louis-Gaëtan & Guivarch, Céline & Quirion, Philippe, 2012. "Exploring the potential for energy conservation in French households through hybrid modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 426-445.
    2. Horne, Matt & Jaccard, Mark & Tiedemann, Ken, 2005. "Improving behavioral realism in hybrid energy-economy models using discrete choice studies of personal transportation decisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 59-77, January.
    3. Salari, Mahmoud & Javid, Roxana J., 2016. "Residential energy demand in the United States: Analysis using static and dynamic approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 637-649.
    4. Halkos, George, 2014. "The Economics of Climate Change Policy: Critical review and future policy directions," MPRA Paper 56841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Aurora Greta Ruggeri & Laura Gabrielli & Massimiliano Scarpa, 2020. "Energy Retrofit in European Building Portfolios: A Review of Five Key Aspects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-38, September.
    6. Chris Bataille & Mark Jaccard & John Nyboer & Nic Rivers, 2006. "Towards General Equilibrium in a Technology-Rich Model with Empirically Estimated Behavioral Parameters," The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(2_suppl), pages 1-20, June.
    7. Ó Broin, Eoin & Mata, Érika & Göransson, Anders & Johnsson, Filip, 2013. "The effect of improved efficiency on energy savings in EU-27 buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 134-148.
    8. Rivers, Nic & Jaccard, Mark, 2006. "Useful models for simulating policies to induce technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2038-2047, October.
    9. Silva, Felipe L.C. & Souza, Reinaldo C. & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando L. & Lourenco, Plutarcho M. & Calili, Rodrigo F., 2018. "A bottom-up methodology for long term electricity consumption forecasting of an industrial sector - Application to pulp and paper sector in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 1107-1118.
    10. Cao, Jing & Ho, Mun & Jorgenson, Dale, 2008. "“Co-benefits†of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies in China: An Integrated Top-Down and Bottom-Up Modeling Analysis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-08-10-efd, Resources for the Future.
    11. Groesser, Stefan N., 2014. "Co-evolution of legal and voluntary standards: Development of energy efficiency in Swiss residential building codes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Park, Sang Yong & Yun, Bo-Yeong & Yun, Chang Yeol & Lee, Duk Hee & Choi, Dong Gu, 2016. "An analysis of the optimum renewable energy portfolio using the bottom–up model: Focusing on the electricity generation sector in South Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 319-329.
    13. Stéphane Poncin, 2018. "Energy policy tools in Luxembourg - Assessing their impact on households’ space heating energy consumption and CO2 emissions by means of the LuxHEI model," DEM Discussion Paper Series 18-23, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    14. da Silva, Felipe L.C. & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando L. & Souza, Reinaldo C., 2019. "A bottom-up bayesian extension for long term electricity consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 198-210.
    15. Murphy, Rose & Jaccard, Mark, 2011. "Energy efficiency and the cost of GHG abatement: A comparison of bottom-up and hybrid models for the US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7146-7155.
    16. Omar Shafqat & Elena Malakhtka & Nina Chrobot & Per Lundqvist, 2021. "End Use Energy Services Framework Co-Creation with Multiple Stakeholders—A Living Lab-Based Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-24, July.
    17. Langevin, J. & Reyna, J.L. & Ebrahimigharehbaghi, S. & Sandberg, N. & Fennell, P. & Nägeli, C. & Laverge, J. & Delghust, M. & Mata, É. & Van Hove, M. & Webster, J. & Federico, F. & Jakob, M. & Camaras, 2020. "Developing a common approach for classifying building stock energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    18. Dellink, Rob & van Ierland, Ekko, 2006. "Pollution abatement in the Netherlands: A dynamic applied general equilibrium assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 207-221, February.
    19. Bourgeois, Cyril & Giraudet, Louis-Gaëtan & Quirion, Philippe, 2021. "Lump-sum vs. energy-efficiency subsidy recycling of carbon tax revenue in the residential sector: A French assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    20. Louis-Gaetan Giraudet and Dominique Finon, 2015. "European experiences with white certifirecate obligations: A critical review of existing evaluations," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ex-ante; Heating; Energy efficiency gap; Bottom-up; Residential; Top-down;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01219283. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.