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Wind Farm Portfolio Optimization under Network Capacity Constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Hélène Le Cadre

    (CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Anthony Papavasiliou

    (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

  • Yves Smeers

    (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

Abstract

In this article, we provide a new methodology for optimizing a portfolio of wind farms within a market environment, for two Market Designs (exogenous prices and endogenous prices). Our model is built on an agent based representation of suppliers and generators interacting in a certain number of geographic demand markets, organized as two tiered systems. Assuming rational expectation of the agents with respect to the outcome of the real-time market, suppliers take forward positions, which act as signals in the day-ahead market, to compensate for the uncertainty associated with supply and demand. Then, generators optimize their bilateral trades with the generators in the other markets. The Nash Equilibria resulting from this Signaling Game are characterized using Game Theory. The Markowitz Frontier, containing the set of efficient wind farm portfolios, is derived theoretically as a function of the number of wind farms and of their concentration. Finally, using a case study of France, Germany and Belgium, we simulate the Markowitz Frontier contour in the expected cost-risk plane.

Suggested Citation

  • Hélène Le Cadre & Anthony Papavasiliou & Yves Smeers, 2015. "Wind Farm Portfolio Optimization under Network Capacity Constraints," Post-Print hal-01007992, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01007992
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.080
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01007992v4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Le Cadre, Hélène & Mezghani, Ilyès & Papavasiliou, Anthony, 2019. "A game-theoretic analysis of transmission-distribution system operator coordination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 317-339.
    2. Li, Carmen & Chyong, Chi Kong & Reiner, David M. & Roques, Fabien, 2024. "Taking a Portfolio approach to wind and solar deployment: The case of the National Electricity Market in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    3. Hélène Le Cadre, 2019. "On the efficiency of local electricity markets under decentralized and centralized designs: a multi-leader Stackelberg game analysis," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(4), pages 953-984, December.
    4. Li, Can & Conejo, Antonio J. & Liu, Peng & Omell, Benjamin P. & Siirola, John D. & Grossmann, Ignacio E., 2022. "Mixed-integer linear programming models and algorithms for generation and transmission expansion planning of power systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 1071-1082.
    5. Lara, Cristiana L. & Mallapragada, Dharik S. & Papageorgiou, Dimitri J. & Venkatesh, Aranya & Grossmann, Ignacio E., 2018. "Deterministic electric power infrastructure planning: Mixed-integer programming model and nested decomposition algorithm," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 1037-1054.
    6. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Gençay, Ramazan, 2018. "Long-run wavelet-based correlation for financial time series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 676-696.
    7. Le Cadre, Hélène & Pagnoncelli, Bernardo & Homem-de-Mello, Tito & Beaude, Olivier, 2019. "Designing coalition-based fair and stable pricing mechanisms under private information on consumers’ reservation prices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 270-291.
    8. Hélène Le Cadre & Bernardo Pagnoncelli & Tito Homem-De-Mello & Olivier Beaude, 2018. "Designing Coalition-Based Fair and Stable Pricing Mechanisms Under Private Information on Consumers' Reservation Prices," Working Papers hal-01353763, HAL.
    9. Hélène Le Cadre & Bernardo Pagnoncelli & Tito Homem-De-Mello & Olivier Beaude, 2018. "Designing Coalition-Based Fair and Stable Pricing Mechanisms Under Private Information on Consumers' Reservation Prices," Post-Print hal-01353763, HAL.
    10. Cranmer, Alexana & Baker, Erin & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2018. "A portfolio model for siting offshore wind farms with economic and environmental objectives," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 304-314.
    11. López-Ramos, Francisco & Nasini, Stefano & Sayed, Mohamed H., 2020. "An integrated planning model in centralized power systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 361-377.

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    Keywords

    Game Theory; Market Design; Markowitz Frontier; Renewable Capacity Investment;
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