IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-00736733.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Shape factors and cross-sectional risk

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Roncoroni

    () (Finance Department - Essec Business School)

  • Stefano Galluccio
  • Paolo Guiotto

    (Universita degli Studi di Padova)

Abstract

Galluccio and Roncoroni (2006) empirically demonstrate that cross-sectional data provide relevant information when assessing dynamic risk in fixed income markets. We put forward a theoretical framework supporting that finding based on the notion of "shape factors". We devise an econometric procedure to identify shape factors, propose a dynamic model for the yield curve, develop a corresponding arbitrage pricing theory, derive interest rate pricing formulae, and study the analytical properties exhibited by a finite factor restriction of rate dynamics that is cross-sectionally consistent with a family of exponentially weighed polynomials. We also conduct an empirical analysis of cross-sectional risk affecting US swap, Euro bond, and oil markets. Results support the conclusion whereby shape factors outperform the classical yield (resp. price) factors (i.e., level, slope, and convexity) in explaining the underlying fixed income (resp. commodity) market risk. The methodology can in principle be used for understanding the intertemporal dynamics of any cross-sectional data.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Roncoroni & Stefano Galluccio & Paolo Guiotto, 2010. "Shape factors and cross-sectional risk," Post-Print hal-00736733, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00736733
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2010.06.002
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00736733
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00736733/document
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Time-Varying Volatility and the Dynamic Behavior of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 336-349, August.
    2. Bertocchi, Marida & Giacometti, Rosella & Zenios, Stavros A., 2005. "Risk factor analysis and portfolio immunization in the corporate bond market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 348-363, March.
    3. Santa-Clara, Pedro & Sornette, Didier, 2001. "The Dynamics of the Forward Interest Rate Curve with Stochastic String Shocks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 149-185.
    4. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Nicolas Sagna & Rama Cont & Nicole El-Karoui & Marc Potters, 1999. "Phenomenology of the interest rate curve," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 209-232.
    5. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.),Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. D. P. Kennedy, 1994. "The Term Structure Of Interest Rates As A Gaussian Random Field," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 247-258, July.
    7. Tomas Björk & Bent Jesper Christensen, 1999. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348, October.
    8. Fong, H Gifford & Vasicek, Oldrich A, 1984. "A Risk Minimizing Strategy for Portfolio Immunization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1541-1546, December.
    9. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Christopher S. Jones, 2008. "Identification of Maximal Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 743-795, April.
    11. Galluccio, Stefano & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2006. "A new measure of cross-sectional risk and its empirical implications for portfolio risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2387-2408, August.
    12. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Michaely, Roni, 1990. "The Structure of Spot Rates and Immunization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 629-642, June.
    13. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. "Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-1882, December.
    14. Robert R. Bliss, 1997. "Movements in the term structure of interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 82(Q 4), pages 16-33.
    15. Goldstein, Robert S, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates as a Random Field," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 365-384.
    16. Harrison, J. Michael & Pliska, Stanley R., 1981. "Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 215-260, August.
    17. Erhan Bayraktar & Li Chen & H. Vincent Poor, 2006. "Projecting The Forward Rate Flow Onto A Finite Dimensional Manifold," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(05), pages 777-785.
    18. Carl Chiarella & Oh Kwon, 2003. "Finite Dimensional Affine Realisations of HJM Models in Terms of Forward Rates and Yields," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 129-155, May.
    19. Prisman, Eliezer Z. & Shores, Marilyn R., 1988. "Duration measures for specific term structure estimations and applications to bond portfolio immunization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 493-504, September.
    20. Musiela, Marek, 1995. "General framework for pricing derivative securities," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 227-251, February.
    21. Shin Ichi Aihara & Arunabha Bagchi, 2005. "Stochastic Hyperbolic Dynamics For Infinite‐Dimensional Forward Rates And Option Pricing," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 27-47, January.
    22. D. P. Kennedy, 1997. "Characterizing Gaussian Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 107-118, April.
    23. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    24. Kimmel, Robert L., 2004. "Modeling the term structure of interest rates: A new approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 143-183, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2018. "A space-time random field model for electricity forward prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 203-216.
    2. Roncoroni, Andrea & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Ronn, Ehud I., 2018. "Introduction—special issue on commodity and energy markets in the Journal of Banking and Finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-4.
    3. Bueno-Guerrero, Alberto & Moreno, Manuel & Navas, Javier F., 2016. "The stochastic string model as a unifying theory of the term structure of interest rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 217-237.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00736733. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.