Shape factors and cross-sectional risk
Galluccio and Roncoroni (2006) empirically demonstrate that cross-sectional data provide relevant information when assessing dynamic risk in fixed income markets. We put forward a theoretical framework supporting that finding based on the notion of "shape factors". We devise an econometric procedure to identify shape factors, propose a dynamic model for the yield curve, develop a corresponding arbitrage pricing theory, derive interest rate pricing formulae, and study the analytical properties exhibited by a finite factor restriction of rate dynamics that is cross-sectionally consistent with a family of exponentially weighed polynomials. We also conduct an empirical analysis of cross-sectional risk affecting US swap, Euro bond, and oil markets. Results support the conclusion whereby shape factors outperform the classical yield (resp., price) factors (i.e., level, slope, and convexity) in explaining the underlying fixed income (resp., commodity) market risk. The methodology can in principle be used for understanding the intertemporal dynamics of any cross-sectional data.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991.
"Time-Varying Volatility and the Dynamic Behavior of the Term Structure,"
NBER Working Papers
3682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Time-Varying Volatility and the Dynamic Behavior of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 336-349, August.
- Santa-Clara, Pedro & Sornette, Didier, 2001.
"The Dynamics of the Forward Interest Rate Curve with Stochastic String Shocks,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 149-185.
- P. Santa-Clara & D. Sornette, 1998. "The Dynamics of the Forward Interest Rate Curve with Stochastic String Shocks," Papers cond-mat/9801321, arXiv.org.
- Erhan Bayraktar & Li Chen & H. Vincent Poor, 2006.
"Projecting The Forward Rate Flow Onto A Finite Dimensional Manifold,"
International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF),
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(05), pages 777-785.
- Erhan Bayraktar & Li Chen & H. Vincent Poor, 2003. "Projecting the Forward Rate Flow on a Finite Dimensional Manifold," Finance 0303007, EconWPA.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Nicolas Sagna & Rama Cont & Nicole El-Karoui & Marc Potters, 1997.
"Phenomenology of the interest rate curve,"
Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive
500048, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985.
"A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- D. P. Kennedy, 1994. "The Term Structure Of Interest Rates As A Gaussian Random Field," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 247-258.
- Tomas Björk & Bent Jesper Christensen, 1999.
"Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348.
- Björk, Tomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 1997. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 209, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Fong, H Gifford & Vasicek, Oldrich A, 1984. " A Risk Minimizing Strategy for Portfolio Immunization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1541-1546, December.
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992.
"Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Christopher S. Jones, 2008. "Identification of Maximal Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 743-795, 04.
- Galluccio, Stefano & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2006. "A new measure of cross-sectional risk and its empirical implications for portfolio risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2387-2408, August.
- Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Michaely, Roni, 1990. " The Structure of Spot Rates and Immunization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 629-642, June.
- Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-1882, December.
- Robert R. Bliss, 1997. "Movements in the term structure of interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 16-33.
- Goldstein, Robert S, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates as a Random Field," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 365-384.
- Harrison, J. Michael & Pliska, Stanley R., 1981. "Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 215-260, August.
- Carl Chiarella & Oh Kwon, 2003. "Finite Dimensional Affine Realisations of HJM Models in Terms of Forward Rates and Yields," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 129-155, May.
- Prisman, Eliezer Z. & Shores, Marilyn R., 1988. "Duration measures for specific term structure estimations and applications to bond portfolio immunization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 493-504, September.
- Musiela, Marek, 1995. "General framework for pricing derivative securities," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 227-251, February.
- Shin Ichi Aihara & Arunabha Bagchi, 2005. "Stochastic Hyperbolic Dynamics For Infinite-Dimensional Forward Rates And Option Pricing," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 27-47.
- D. P. Kennedy, 1997. "Characterizing Gaussian Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 107-118.
- Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
- Kimmel, Robert L., 2004. "Modeling the term structure of interest rates: A new approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 143-183, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:11:p:2320-2340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.