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Contrôle des activités illégales en présence d'un biais d'optimisme

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Jacquemet

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Jean-Louis Rullière

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Isabelle Vialle

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Le contrôle est l'un des instruments majeur de répression des activités illégales. Cette dimension est intégrée aux analyses économiques du crime sous la forme d'une probabilité de détection et fondée seulement sur l'aversion au risque. La psychologie cognitive montre que la perception des probabilités peut elle-même varier d'un individu à l'autre. Cet article propose une analyse expérimentale de ce type d'erreur de perception, qualifiée de biais d'optimisme, à partir d'une série de choix entre une activité légale et une activité illégale. Les traitements expérimentaux évaluent la mesure dans laquelle les modalités de contrôle peuvent, à probabilité donnée, influencer les biais d'optimisme. Les résultats suggèrent que les politiques de communication de lutte contre les activités frauduleuses doivent favoriser la perception idiosyncrasique du risque.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Jacquemet & Jean-Louis Rullière & Isabelle Vialle, 2007. "Contrôle des activités illégales en présence d'un biais d'optimisme," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00259460, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00259460
    DOI: 10.3917/reco.583.0555
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
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    1. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2005. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects: New Data without Order Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 902-912, June.
    2. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00746617 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimisme; Controle; Activités illégales; Economie expérimentale;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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