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Fear of novelty : a model of scientific discovery with strategic uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Damien Besancenot

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Radu Vranceanu

    (ESSEC Business School and THEMA (UMR 8184) - ESSEC Business School - THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the production of fundamental research as a coordination game played by scholars. In the model, scholars decide to adopt a new idea only if they believe that a critical mass of peers is following a similar research strategy. If researchers observe only a noisy idiosyncratic signal of the true scientifi c potential of a new idea, we show that the game presents a single threshold equilibrium. In this environment, fundamental research proceeds with large structural breaks followed by long periods of time in which new ideas are unsuccessful. The likelihood of a new idea emerging depends on various parameters, including the rewards of working in the old paradigm, the critical mass of researchers required to create a new school of thought and scholars' ability to properly assess the scientifi c value of new ideas.

Suggested Citation

  • Damien Besancenot & Radu Vranceanu, 2014. "Fear of novelty : a model of scientific discovery with strategic uncertainty," CEPN Working Papers hal-01117929, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-01117929
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://essec.hal.science/hal-01117929
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Mikko Packalen & Jay Bhattacharya, 2018. "Does the NIH Fund Edge Science?," NBER Working Papers 24860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics of science; Scienti c discovery; Strategic complementarity; Strategic un- certainty; Global games;
    All these keywords.

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