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Investment Dynamics: Good News Principle

Author

Listed:
  • Talat S. Genc

    (Department of Economics,University of Guelph)

  • Georges Zaccour

    (GERAD, HEC Montreal.)

Abstract

We study a dynamic Cournot game with capacity accumulation under demand uncertainty, in which the investment is perfectly divisible, irreversible, and productive with a lag. We characterize equilibrium investments under closed-loop and S-adapted open-loop information structures. Contrary to what is established usually in the dynamic games literature with deterministic demand, we find that the firms may invest at a higher level in the open-loop equilibrium (which in some cases coincides with Markov perfect equilibrium) than in the closed-loop Nash equilibrium. The rankings of the investment levels obtained in the two equilibria actually depend on the initial capacities and on the degree of asymmetry between the firms. We also observe, contrary to the bad news principle of investment, that firms may invest more as demand volatility increases and they invest as if high demand (i.e., good news) will unfold in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Talat S. Genc & Georges Zaccour, 2010. "Investment Dynamics: Good News Principle," Working Papers 1006, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:gue:guelph:2010-6.
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capacity Investment; Dynamic Games; S-adapted Open-Loop Equilibrium; Closed-loop Equilibrium.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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