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Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: La Política Fiscal y el Balance Estructural en México, 1990-2009

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Chávez Martín del Campo

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas

    (Centro de Estudios de las Finanzas Públicas, Cámara de Diputados)

  • Felipe de Jesús Fonseca Hernández

    (Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Universidad de Guadalajara)

Abstract

El presente estudio realiza el cálculo del Balance Estructural del Sector Público (BESP) para la economía mexicana de 1990 a 2009 ajustado por los efectos que tiene el ciclo económico sobre las cuentas fiscales así como también por los efectos que tiene el precio internacional del petróleo sobre los ingresos petroleros. Los resultados obtenidos indican que a pesar de que la política fiscal muestra un carácter procíclico durante la mayor parte del período sujeto a estudio, en el período reciente –finales de 2008 y mitad de 2009-, la política fiscal muestra un carácter netamente contracíclico, aunque menor a la que indica el balance tradicional. Asimismo, se simula el efecto que hubiera tenido el haber adoptado una regla fiscal sobre el BESP y el balance tradicional durante el período de estudio.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Chávez Martín del Campo & Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas & Felipe de Jesús Fonseca Hernández, 2010. "Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: La Política Fiscal y el Balance Estructural en México, 1990-2009," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EC201004, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:gua:wpaper:ec201004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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