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Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: La Política Fiscal y el Balance Estructural en México, 1990-2009

  • Juan Carlos Chávez Martín del Campo

    ()

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas

    ()

    (Centro de Estudios de las Finanzas Públicas, Cámara de Diputados)

  • Felipe de Jesús Fonseca Hernández

    ()

    (Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Universidad de Guadalajara)

Registered author(s):

    El presente estudio realiza el cálculo del Balance Estructural del Sector Público (BESP) para la economía mexicana de 1990 a 2009 ajustado por los efectos que tiene el ciclo económico sobre las cuentas fiscales así como también por los efectos que tiene el precio internacional del petróleo sobre los ingresos petroleros. Los resultados obtenidos indican que a pesar de que la política fiscal muestra un carácter procíclico durante la mayor parte del período sujeto a estudio, en el período reciente –finales de 2008 y mitad de 2009-, la política fiscal muestra un carácter netamente contracíclico, aunque menor a la que indica el balance tradicional. Asimismo, se simula el efecto que hubiera tenido el haber adoptado una regla fiscal sobre el BESP y el balance tradicional durante el período de estudio.

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    File URL: http://economia.ugto.org/WorkingPapers/EC201004.pdf
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    Paper provided by Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers with number EC201004.

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    Length: 31 pages
    Date of creation: Aug 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:gua:wpaper:ec201004
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    1. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    3. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 1113-1141, December.
    4. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    5. Ernesto Talvi & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Marcel, Mario, 2001. "Balance Estructural del Gobierno Central. Metodología y Estimaciones para Chile
      [Structural Bazlance of Central Government. Methodology and estimates for Chile]
      ," MPRA Paper 43338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2000. "Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 2400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Robert P. Hagemann, 1999. "The Structural Budget Balance The IMF’s Methodology," IMF Working Papers 99/95, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Jorge C. Rodriguez & Carla R. Tokman & Alejandra C. Vega, 2007. "Structural Balance Policy in Chile," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 59-92.
    10. Cuddington, John T. & Urzua, Carlos M., 1989. "Trends and cycles in Colombia's real GDP and fiscal deficit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 325-343, April.
    11. Jeronimo Pastor & Alejandro Villagomez, 2007. "The structural budget balance: a preliminary estimation for Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(12), pages 1599-1607.
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