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Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: La Política Fiscal y el Balance Estructural en México, 1990-2009

  • Juan Carlos Chávez Martín del Campo

    ()

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas

    ()

    (Centro de Estudios de las Finanzas Públicas, Cámara de Diputados)

  • Felipe de Jesús Fonseca Hernández

    ()

    (Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Universidad de Guadalajara)

Registered author(s):

    El presente estudio realiza el cálculo del Balance Estructural del Sector Público (BESP) para la economía mexicana de 1990 a 2009 ajustado por los efectos que tiene el ciclo económico sobre las cuentas fiscales así como también por los efectos que tiene el precio internacional del petróleo sobre los ingresos petroleros. Los resultados obtenidos indican que a pesar de que la política fiscal muestra un carácter procíclico durante la mayor parte del período sujeto a estudio, en el período reciente –finales de 2008 y mitad de 2009-, la política fiscal muestra un carácter netamente contracíclico, aunque menor a la que indica el balance tradicional. Asimismo, se simula el efecto que hubiera tenido el haber adoptado una regla fiscal sobre el BESP y el balance tradicional durante el período de estudio.

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    File URL: http://economia.ugto.org/WorkingPapers/EC201004.pdf
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    Paper provided by Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers with number EC201004.

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    Length: 31 pages
    Date of creation: Aug 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:gua:wpaper:ec201004
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