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Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: la política fiscal y el balance estructural en México, 1990-2009


  • Juan Carlos Chávez Martín del Campo

    (Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas

    (Centro de Estudios de las Finanzas Públicas)

  • Felipe de Jesús Fonseca Hernández

    (Banco de México)


This study estimates the structural budget balance for the Mexican economy adjusting for both the business cycle and the international oil price for the period 1990-2009. Consistent with earlier studies, our results suggest that fiscal policy has been characterized as procyclical during most of the period. However, we find that it has been countercyclical since late 2008, although to a lesser degree than what indicates the traditional balance. Moreover, we simulate counterfactual scenarios where it is analyzed what would have happened if a fiscal rule were applied on both the structural and the traditional budget balances over the period under study.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Chávez Martín del Campo & Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas & Felipe de Jesús Fonseca Hernández, 2010. "Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: la política fiscal y el balance estructural en México, 1990-2009," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 25(2), pages 309-336.
  • Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:25:y:2010:i:2:p:309-336

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 1113-1141, December.
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    8. Robert P. Hagemann, 1999. "The Structural Budget Balance The IMF’s Methodology," IMF Working Papers 99/95, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item


    public balance; structural balance; business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


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