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Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: la política fiscal y el balance estructural en México, 1990-2009

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Chávez Martín del Campo

    (Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas

    (Centro de Estudios de las Finanzas Públicas)

  • Felipe de Jesús Fonseca Hernández

    (Banco de México)

Abstract

This study estimates the structural budget balance for the Mexican economy adjusting for both the business cycle and the international oil price for the period 1990-2009. Consistent with earlier studies, our results suggest that fiscal policy has been characterized as procyclical during most of the period. However, we find that it has been countercyclical since late 2008, although to a lesser degree than what indicates the traditional balance. Moreover, we simulate counterfactual scenarios where it is analyzed what would have happened if a fiscal rule were applied on both the structural and the traditional budget balances over the period under study.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Chávez Martín del Campo & Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas & Felipe de Jesús Fonseca Hernández, 2010. "Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: la política fiscal y el balance estructural en México, 1990-2009," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 25(2), pages 309-336.
    • Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:25:y:2010:i:2:p:309-336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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