IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gmf/wpaper/2012-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Convergence and Growth: Portugal in the EU 1986-2010

Author

Listed:
  • Marta Simões

    () (GEMF and Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra)

  • João Sousa Andrade

    () (GEMF and Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra)

  • Adelaide Duarte

    () (GEMF and Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra)

Abstract

The Portuguese convergence and growth experience after EU membership can be divided into two periods: 1986-1998, a convergence period during which growth in the Portuguese economy accelerated and Portugal grew faster than the EU15/14 average; and a stagnation/divergence period from 1999 onwards when its growth rate slowed down to figures lower than the reference group average. After EU accession, Portugal benefitted from better macroeconomic policies (associated with the process of nominal convergence on the way to the euro in 1990s), structural reforms, in the financial, labour and product markets, investments in physical and human capital, and improvements in other growth enhancing factors, which help to explain its good performance in the first sub-period. However, Portugal continues to present low values for most growth indicators when compared with their levels in the rest of the EU14, especially in what concerns educational attainment, technological infrastructures and investments in research and development and the dissemination of knowledge. The resurgence of macroeconomic instability associated with the increase in the government size, and the increased specialization pattern towards low productivity services sub-sectors also help to understand why Portugal stopped converging and is facing poor long-term growth prospects. The results from the estimation of a growth regression with quantile regressions techniques support this concern by revealing that for lower rates of growth an increase of the non-tradables sector and a loss of competitiveness are especially harmful for growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Simões & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2012. "Convergence and Growth: Portugal in the EU 1986-2010," GEMF Working Papers 2012-13, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2012-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://gemf.fe.uc.pt/workingpapers/pdf/2012/gemf_2012-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    2. Lains, Pedro, 2003. "Catching up to the European core: Portuguese economic growth, 1910-1990," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 369-386, October.
    3. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    4. Raul A. Barreto & Anthony W. Hughes, 2004. "Under Performers and Over Achievers: A Quantile Regression Analysis of Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(248), pages 17-35, March.
    5. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Philip Hemmings, 2001. "Economic Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions: Panel Data. Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
    6. Gilles Dufrenot & Valerie Mignon & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "The trade-growth nexus in the developing countries: a quantile regression approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(4), pages 731-761, December.
    7. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:52:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March.
    10. Mello, Marcelo & Perrelli, Roberto, 2003. "Growth equations: a quantile regression exploration," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 643-667.
    11. Jesus regstdpo-Cuaresma & Neil Foster & Robert Stehrer, 2011. "Determinants of Regional Economic Growth by Quantile," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 809-826.
    12. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    13. Evan Osborne, 2006. "The Sources Of Growth At Different Stages Of Development," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 536-547, October.
    14. Miles, W., 2004. "Human Capital and Economic Growth: A Quantile Regression Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2).
    15. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    16. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    17. Ivan A. Canay, 2011. "A simple approach to quantile regression for panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(3), pages 368-386, October.
    18. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    19. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, March.
    20. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta, 2003. "The Driving Forces of Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence for the OECD Countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2001(2), pages 9-56.
    21. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, May.
    22. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    23. Marcio Laurini, 2007. "A note on the use of quantile regression in beta convergence analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(52), pages 1-8.
    24. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    25. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    26. Karras, Georgios, 1997. "On the Optimal Government Size in Europe: Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(3), pages 280-294, June.
    27. Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 385-406, June.
    28. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-2132, December.
    29. Barros, Pedro Pita & Garoupa, Nuno, 1996. "Portugal-European Union convergence: Some evidence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 545-553, November.
    30. Santos Pereira, Álvaro & Lains, Pedro, 2010. "From an agrarian society to a knowledge economy : Portugal, 1950-2010," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp10-09, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    31. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
    32. Neil Foster, 2008. "The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Economic Growth: Evidence from a Quantile Regression Analysis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 543-567, November.
    33. Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial economic growth; convergence; Portugal; quantile regression; government size; non-tradables sector.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2012-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Seiça). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cebucpt.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.