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Implications of productivity growth in Pakistan: An cconomy-wide analysis

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  • Debowicz, Dario
  • Dorosh, Paul A.
  • Robinson, Sherman
  • Haider, Syed Hamza

Abstract

Public investments and policies under Pakistan’s new Framework for Economic Growth are expected to lead to substantial gains in productivity, especially in the industrial and service sectors of Pakistan’s economy. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model simulations using a new 2008 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Pakistan show that achieving high productivity growth targets broadly consistent with the Framework for Economic Growth would imply a 9.3 percent per year gain in average household income (compared to trend growth in household incomes of 5.8 percent). Accelerating agricultural growth as well, however, would result in even greater overall economic growth with an additional 2.6 percent gain in average household income. Moreover, with accelerated agriculture growth, real incomes of poor household groups rise substantially, by an additional 2.9 to 4.5 percent, as food-deficit urban poor and poor rural non-farm households benefit from lower real food prices, and agricultural growth spurs rural non-farm output and incomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Debowicz, Dario & Dorosh, Paul A. & Robinson, Sherman & Haider, Syed Hamza, 2012. "Implications of productivity growth in Pakistan: An cconomy-wide analysis," PSSP working papers 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:psspwp:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dorosh, Paul & Niazi, Muhammad Khan, 2006. "Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan, 2001-02: Methodology and Results," MPRA Paper 2242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ministry of Finance Government of India,, 2011. "Economic Survey 2010-11," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198074090.
    3. Paul S. Armington, 1969. "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une théorie de la demande de produits différenciés d'après leur origine) (Una teoría de la demanda de productos distinguiénd," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(1), pages 159-178, March.
    4. Dorosh, Paul A. & Salam, Abdul, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Pakistan," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48482, World Bank.
    5. World Bank, 2007. "Pakistan : Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction," World Bank Publications - Reports 7984, The World Bank Group.
    6. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Orden, David, 2008. "Pakistan's cotton and textile economy: Intersectoral linkages and effects on rural and urban poverty," Research reports 158, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Mahmood, Arshad & Marpaung, Charles O.P., 2014. "Carbon pricing and energy efficiency improvement -- why to miss the interaction for developing economies? An illustrative CGE based application to the Pakistan case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 87-103.

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