Regulatory solvency prediction in property-liability insurance: risk-based capital, audit ratios, and cash flow simulation
This paper analyzes the accuracy of the principal models used by U.S. insurance regulators to predict insolvencies in the property-liability insurance industry and compares these models with a relatively new solvency testing approach--cash flow simulation. Specifically, we compare the risk-based capital (RBC) system introduced by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) in 1994, the FAST (Financial Analysis and Surveillance Tracking) audit ratio system used by the NAIC, and a cash flow simulation model developed by the authors. Both the RBC and FAST systems are static, ratio-based approaches to solvency testing, whereas the cash flow simulation model implements dynamic financial analysis. Logistic regression analysis is used to test the models for a large sample of solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers, using data from the years 1990-1992 to predict insolvencies over three-year prediction horizons. We find that the FAST system dominates RBC as a static method for predicting insurer insolvencies. Further, we find the cash flow simulation variables add significant explanatory power to the regressions and lead to more accurate solvency prediction than the ratio-based models taken alone.
|Date of creation:||1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.phil.frb.org/econ/wps/index.html Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lamm-Tennant, Joan & Starks, Laura T, 1993. "Stock versus Mutual Ownership Structures: The Risk Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(1), pages 29-46, January.
- J. David Cummins & Scott E. Harrington & Robert Klein, 1995. "nsolvency Experience, Risk-Based Capital, and Prompt Corrective Action in Property-Liability Insurance," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 95-06, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Cummins, J. David & Harrington, Scott E. & Klein, Robert, 1995. "Insolvency experience, risk-based capital, and prompt corrective action in property-liability insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 511-527, June.
This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
- Deterministische Simulationsmodelle als Insolvenzprognoseverfahren in Wikipedia German ne '')
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:98-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Beth Paul)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.