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The Role of RBC, Hurricane Exposure, Bond Portfolio Duration, and Macroeconomic and Industry-wide Factors in Property–Liability Insolvency Prediction

Author

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  • Jiang Cheng
  • Mary A. Weiss

Abstract

This research analyzes the performance of the Risk Based Capital (RBC) ratio and other variables in predicting insolvencies in the property-liability insurance industry during the period 1994 to 2008. This research contributes to the literature by analyzing a longer period of time than previous research, testing timely variables such as exposure to hurricane prone areas and testing the role of macroeconomic and industry-wide variables in property-liability insurer insolvencies. The results indicate that the accuracy of the RBC ratio in predicting insolvencies is inconsistent over time and that some previously tested financial ratios that are part of the Financial Analysis Solvency Tools system do not always reliably predict insurer insolvency. In addition, the insolvency propensity is found to be significantly related to an insurer’s hurricane prone area exposure, changes in interest rates, the industry-wide combined ratio, and the industry-wide Herfindahl index of premiums written.
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Suggested Citation

  • Jiang Cheng & Mary A. Weiss, 2012. "The Role of RBC, Hurricane Exposure, Bond Portfolio Duration, and Macroeconomic and Industry-wide Factors in Property–Liability Insolvency Prediction," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 723-750, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:79:y:2012:i:3:p:723-750
    DOI: j.1539-6975.2011.01452.x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2011.01452.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Eling, Martin & Jia, Ruo & Schaper, Philipp, 2017. "Get the Balance Right: A Simultaneous Equation Model to Analyze Growth, Profitability, and Safety," Working Papers on Finance 1716, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Al-Amri, Khalid & David Cummins, J. & Weiss, Mary A., 2021. "Economies of scope, organizational form, and insolvency risk: Evidence from the takaful industry," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Ignacio Moreno & Purificación Parrado‐Martínez & Antonio Trujillo‐Ponce, 2020. "Economic crisis and determinants of solvency in the insurance sector: new evidence from Spain," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2965-2994, September.
    4. Hsiao, Ching-Yuan & Shiu, Yung-Ming, 2024. "Internal versus external capital markets and risk-taking," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 503-519.
    5. Eling, Martin & Jia, Ruo, 2018. "Business failure, efficiency, and volatility: Evidence from the European insurance industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-76.
    6. Hsiao, Ching-Yuan & Shiu, Yung-Ming, 2023. "Contingent factors of the coinsurance function of internal capital markets: Evidence from the US nonlife insurance industry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Tao Chen & Shinichi Kamiya & Pingyi Lou & Andreas Milidonis, 2023. "Analyst coverage, executive compensation and corporate risk‐taking: Evidence from property–casualty insurance firms," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(4), pages 899-939, December.
    8. Hsiao, Ching-Yuan & Shiu, Yung-Ming, 2023. "Risk-sharing function in internal capital markets: Evidence from intragroup reinsurance activities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Hsiao, Ching-Yuan & Shiu, Yung-Ming, 2021. "Group firms’ access to internal capital markets: The contingent roles of group resources and affiliates’ financial weakness," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 135-156.
    10. Ben Ammar, Semir & Braun, Alexander & Eling, Martin, 2015. "Alternative Risk Transfer and Insurance-Linked Securities: Trends, Challenges and New Market Opportunities," I.VW HSG Schriftenreihe, University of St.Gallen, Institute of Insurance Economics (I.VW-HSG), volume 56, number 56.
    11. Jing Li & Jiang Cheng, 2023. "Are female CEOs associated with lower insolvency risk? Evidence from the US property‐casualty insurance industry," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(4), pages 941-973, December.
    12. Christian Biener & Martin Eling, 2013. "Recent Research Developments Affecting Nonlife Insurance—The CAS Risk Premium Project 2012 Update," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 16(2), pages 219-231, September.
    13. Olivier de Bandt & George Overton, 2022. "Why do insurers fail? A comparison of life and nonlife insurance companies from an international database," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(4), pages 871-905, December.
    14. Anggy Renaldo & Unggul Purwohedi & Gatot Nazir Ahmad, 2021. "Determinants of the Risk-Based Capital of Insurance Companies in Indonesia," Oblik i finansi, Institute of Accounting and Finance, issue 3, pages 72-77, September.
    15. Abdul Latif Alhassan & Nicholas Biekpe, 2018. "Competition and Risk-Taking Behaviour in the Non-Life Insurance Market in South Africa," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 43(3), pages 492-519, July.

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