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Decomposing short-term return reversal

  • Zhi Da
  • Qianqiu Liu
  • Ernst Schaumburg

The profit to a standard short-term return reversal strategy can be decomposed analytically into four components: 1) across-industry return momentum, 2) within-industry variation in expected returns, 3) under-reaction to within-industry cash flow news, and 4) a residual. Only the residual component, which isolates reaction to recent “nonfundamental” price changes, is significant and positive in the data. A simple short-term return reversal trading strategy designed to capture the residual component generates a highly significant risk-adjusted return three times the size of the standard reversal strategy during our 1982-2009 sampling period. Our decomposition suggests that short-term return reversal is pervasive, much greater than previously documented, and driven by investor sentiment on the short side and liquidity shocks on the long side.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 513.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:513
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  1. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  2. Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2002. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Robert F. Stambaugh & Jianfeng Yu & Yu Yuan, 2011. "The Short of It: Investor Sentiment and Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 16898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Evaporating Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 17653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Long Chen & Xinlei Zhao, 2009. "Return Decomposition," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5213-5249, December.
  6. Wang, Jiang & Grossman, Sanford & Campbell, John, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3128710, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Lubos Pastor & Meenakshi Sinha & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2006. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," NBER Working Papers 11941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
  9. Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling, 2007. "A Financing-Based Misvaluation Factor and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," MPRA Paper 20636, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Feb 2010.
  10. Long Chen & Zhi Da & Xinlei Zhao, 2013. "What Drives Stock Price Movements?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 841-876.
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