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Decomposing short-term return reversal

Author

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  • Zhi Da
  • Qianqiu Liu
  • Ernst Schaumburg

Abstract

The profit to a standard short-term return reversal strategy can be decomposed analytically into four components: 1) across-industry return momentum, 2) within-industry variation in expected returns, 3) under-reaction to within-industry cash flow news, and 4) a residual. Only the residual component, which isolates reaction to recent “nonfundamental” price changes, is significant and positive in the data. A simple short-term return reversal trading strategy designed to capture the residual component generates a highly significant risk-adjusted return three times the size of the standard reversal strategy during our 1982-2009 sampling period. Our decomposition suggests that short-term return reversal is pervasive, much greater than previously documented, and driven by investor sentiment on the short side and liquidity shocks on the long side.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhi Da & Qianqiu Liu & Ernst Schaumburg, 2011. "Decomposing short-term return reversal," Staff Reports 513, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:513
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    2. Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Evaporating Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2005-2039.
    3. David Hirshleifer & Danling Jiang, 2010. "A Financing-Based Misvaluation Factor and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3401-3436.
    4. Lubos Pástor & Meenakshi Sinha & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2008. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2859-2897, December.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
    6. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    7. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    8. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    9. Long Chen & Zhi Da & Xinlei Zhao, 2013. "What Drives Stock Price Movements?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 841-876.
    10. repec:bla:joares:v:6:y:1968:i:2:p:159-178 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Long Chen & Xinlei Zhao, 2009. "Return Decomposition," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5213-5249, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hongbo Guo & Xianhua Wei, 2017. "Momentum Decomposition: Evidence from Emerging Markets," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 123-132, February.
    2. Campbell R. Harvey & Yan Liu & Heqing Zhu, 2014. ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 20592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Blitz, David & Huij, Joop & Lansdorp, Simon & Verbeek, Marno, 2013. "Short-term residual reversal," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 477-504.
    4. Robert Ślepaczuk & Grzegorz Zakrzewski & Paweł Sakowski, 2012. "Investment strategies beating the market. What can we squeeze from the market?," Working Papers 2012-04, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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    Keywords

    Rate of return ; Liquidity (Economics);

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