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Pareto Improving Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Samuelson in the New Keynesian Model

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  • Mark Aguiar
  • Manuel Amador
  • Cristina Arellano

Abstract

This paper explores the positive and normative consequences of government bond issuances in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents, focusing on how the stock of government bonds affects the cross-sectional allocation of resources in the spirit of Samuelson (1958). We characterize the Pareto optimal levels of government bonds and the associated monetary policy adjustments that should accompany Pareto-improving bond issuances. The paper introduces a simple phase diagram to analyze the global equilibrium dynamics of inflation, interest rates, and labor earnings in response to changes in the stock of government debt. The framework also provides a tractable tool to explore the use of fiscal policy to escape the Effective Lower Bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates and the resolution of the “forward guidance puzzle.” A common theme throughout is that following the monetary policy guidance from the standard Ricardian framework leads to excess fluctuations in income and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Cristina Arellano, 2023. "Pareto Improving Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Samuelson in the New Keynesian Model," Staff Report 646, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:96368
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.646
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Christina Patterson, 2023. "The Forward Guidance Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 43-79.
    2. Marini, Giancarlo & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1988. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Optimising Model with Capital Accumulation and Finite Lives," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 772-786, September.
    3. Bewley, Truman, 1983. "A Difficulty with the Optimum Quantity of Money," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1485-1504, September.
    4. Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Interest Rate Cuts vs. Stimulus Payments: An Equivalence Result," NBER Working Papers 29193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Atif R. Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2022. "A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Deficits," NBER Working Papers 29707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Galo Nuño Barrau & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by falling stars: monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates," BIS Working Papers 1172, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. George‐Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian & Christian K. Wolf, 2024. "Can Deficits Finance Themselves?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1351-1390, September.
    3. Sergi Barcons & Eduardo D‡vila & Andreas Schaab, 2025. "Intergenerational Welfare Assessments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2427, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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