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Pareto Improving Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Samuelson in the New Keynesian Model

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Listed:
  • Mark Aguiar
  • Manuel Amador
  • Cristina Arellano

Abstract

This paper explores the positive and normative consequences of government bond issuances in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents, focusing on how the stock of government bonds affects the cross-sectional allocation of resources in the spirit of Samuelson (1958). We characterize the Pareto optimal levels of government bonds and the associated monetary policy adjustments that should accompany Pareto-improving bond issuances. The paper introduces a simple phase diagram to analyze the global equilibrium dynamics of inflation, interest rates, and labor earnings in response to changes in the stock of government debt. The framework also provides a tractable tool to explore the use of fiscal policy to escape the Effective Lower Bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates and the resolution of the “forward guidance puzzle.” A common theme throughout is that following the monetary policy guidance from the standard Ricardian framework leads to excess fluctuations in income and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Cristina Arellano, 2023. "Pareto Improving Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Samuelson in the New Keynesian Model," Staff Report 646, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:96368
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.646
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Atif R. Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2022. "A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Deficits," NBER Working Papers 29707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bewley, Truman, 1983. "A Difficulty with the Optimum Quantity of Money," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1485-1504, September.
    3. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Christina Patterson, 2023. "The Forward Guidance Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 43-79.
    4. Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Interest Rate Cuts vs. Stimulus Payments: An Equivalence Result," NBER Working Papers 29193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Marini, Giancarlo & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1988. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Optimising Model with Capital Accumulation and Finite Lives," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 772-786, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Galo Nuño & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars: Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," NBER Working Papers 32219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sergi Barcons & Eduardo D‡vila & Andreas Schaab, 2025. "Intergenerational Welfare Assessments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2427, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. George‐Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian & Christian K. Wolf, 2024. "Can Deficits Finance Themselves?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1351-1390, September.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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