An empirical analysis of income dynamics among men in the PSID: 1968-1989
This study uses data from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) to address a number of questions about life cycle earnings mobility. It develops a dynamic reduced form model of earnings and marital status that is nonstationary over the life cycle. The study reaches several firm conclusions about life cycle earnings mobility. Incorporating non-Gaussian shocks makes it possible to account for transitions between low and higher earnings states, a heretofore unresolved problem. The non-Gaussian distribution substantially increases the lifetime return to post-secondary education, and substantially reduces differences in lifetime wages attributable to race. In a given year, the majority of variance in earnings not accounted for by race, education and age is due to transitory shocks, but over a lifetime the majority is due to unobserved individual heterogeneity. Consequently, low earnings at early ages are strong predictors of low earnings later in life, even conditioning on observed individual characteristics.
|Date of creation:||1997|
|Date of revision:|
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- John Geweke, .
"Posterior Simulators in Econometrics,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1996
_019, Society for Computational Economics.
- Gottschald, Peter T, 1982. "Earnings Mobility: Permanent Change or Transitory Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(3), pages 450-56, August.
- Joel L. Horowitz & Marianthi Markatou, 1993. "Semiparametric Estimation Of Regression Models For Panel Data," Econometrics 9309001, EconWPA.
- Horowitz, J.L. & Markatou, M., 1993. "Semiparametric Estimation of Regression Models for Panel Data," Working Papers 93-14, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Lillard, Lee A & Willis, Robert J, 1978.
"Dynamic Aspects of Earning Mobility,"
Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 985-1012, September.
- MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
- Shorrocks, A F, 1976. "Income Mobility and the Markov Assumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(343), pages 566-78, September.
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