IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/96849.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Transition to Sustained Growth: The Importance of Recent Agricultural Employment

Author

Abstract

We study a model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). We map the former to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment declines at a constant rate during the economic transition and that recent observations on the share are sufficient to estimate the onset of transition. Our model implies that (i) output growth is higher and increasing after the onset of transition, (ii) during the transition, it is a first-order autoregressive process, and (iii) the rate of decline in the share of agricultural employment is a sufficient statistic for the autoregressive coefficient. Our quantitative results are consistent with these implications for developed economies over more than a century despite the changes in the sectoral composition of output and for today's developing economies in various stages of development and structural transformation.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Ravikumar & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2023. "On the Transition to Sustained Growth: The Importance of Recent Agricultural Employment," Working Papers 2023-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 22 May 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:96849
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2023.026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2023/2023-026.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.20955/wp.2023.026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tang, John P., 2014. "Railroad Expansion and Industrialization: Evidence from Meiji Japan," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 863-886, September.
    2. Jones Charles I., 2001. "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-45, August.
    3. Oksana M. LEUKHINA & Stephen J. TURNOVSKY, 2016. "Push, Pull, and Population Size Effects in Structural Development: Long-run Trade-offs," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 423-457, December.
    4. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    5. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Oksana M. Leukhina & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2016. "Population Size Effects in the Structural Development of England," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 195-229, July.
    7. Tamura, Robert, 2002. "Human capital and the switch from agriculture to industry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 207-242, December.
    8. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Galindev, Ragchaasuren, 2008. "The Evolution of Population, Technology and Output," MPRA Paper 17116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Aug 2009.
    2. Matthias Doepke, 2004. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, September.
    3. Loupias, Claire & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2019. "Technological changes and population growth: The role of land in England," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 198-210.
    4. Ehrlich, Isaac & Kim, Jinyoung, 2005. "Endogenous fertility, mortality and economic growth: Can a Malthusian framework account for the conflicting historical trends in population?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 789-806, October.
    5. Boucekkine, R. & Martínez, B. & Ruiz-Tamarit, J.R., 2013. "Growth vs. level effect of population change on economic development: An inspection into human-capital-related mechanisms," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 312-334.
    6. Carol Scotese Lehr, 2009. "Evidence on the Demographic Transition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 871-887, November.
    7. Tamura, Robert & Dwyer, Jerry & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott, 2019. "Economic growth in the long run," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1-35.
    8. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2023. "The scientific revolution and its implications for long-run economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Momota, Akira, 2009. "A population-macroeconomic growth model for currently developing countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 431-453, February.
    10. Roa, María José & Saura, Dulce & Vázquez, Francisco J., 2011. "Economic growth, labor market and demographic patterns," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 81-91, February.
    11. Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, May.
    12. Ngai, L. Rachel, 2004. "Barriers and the transition to modern growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1353-1383, October.
    13. Charles I. Jones, 2019. "Paul Romer: Ideas, Nonrivalry, and Endogenous Growth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 859-883, July.
    14. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2005. "Intergenerational transfers and demographic transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 191-214, October.
    15. Chi Pui Ho, 2024. "Towards a More Complete Theory of Structural Transformation," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 25(1), pages 289-326, May.
    16. Maria Fröling, 2011. "Energy use, population and growth, 1800–1970," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 1133-1163, July.
    17. James Foreman-Peck & Peng Zhou, 2021. "Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 1073-1104, July.
    18. James Foreman-Peck & Peng Zhou, 2021. "Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 1073-1104, July.
    19. Tamotsu Nakamura, 2018. "Solow meets Stone–Geary: Technological progress and the demographic transition," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 768-790, November.
    20. Curran, Declan & Fröling, Maria, 2010. "Large-scale mortality shocks and the Great Irish Famine 1845-1852," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1302-1314, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Malthus; Solow; agricultural employment; economic transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:96849. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Scott St. Louis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.