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Push, Pull, and Population Size Effects in Structural Development: Long-run Trade-offs


  • Oksana M. LEUKHINA

    (University of Washington)

  • Stephen J. TURNOVSKY

    (University of Washington)


The process of structural transformation from the farm to a nonfarm sector is accompanied by technological change in both sectors and massive population growth. We investigate the effects of increasing population size (the population effect) and sector-specific productivity (the push and pull effects), both factor-neutral and factor-biased, in a parsimonious general equilibrium model under general forms of utility and production functions. All three effects may co-exist and interact in important ways. Generalizing the agricultural sector production function to CES is crucial for the population growth effect. Our analysis highlights how the relative importance of the three effects changes as the country develops and production and consumption conditions become more flexible.

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  • Oksana M. LEUKHINA & Stephen J. TURNOVSKY, 2016. "Push, Pull, and Population Size Effects in Structural Development: Long-run Trade-offs," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 423-457, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:82:y:2016:i:4:p:423-457

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    More about this item


    Structural transformation; Urbanization; Industrialization; Technological progress; Population growth;

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General


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