IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-02103077.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Technological changes and population growth: The role of land in England

Author

Listed:
  • Claire Loupias

    (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Bertrand Wigniolle

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

This paper emphasizes the role of land and technological progress in economic and population growth. The model is calibrated using historical data on England concerning both economic growth rate and the factor shares (land, capital, and labor) in total income, as well as mortality tables. It is able to reproduce the dynamics of population since 1760. Moreover, it is possible to disentangle the relative effect of technical changes and mortality fall on the evolution of population. We conduct a counterfactual analysis eliminating successively the increase in life expectancy and the technological bias. With no increase in life expectancy, population would have been respectively 10% and 30% lower in 1910 and in the long run. The figures would have been respectively 40% and 60% lower, with no bias in the technical progress. Finally, population would have been 45% smaller in 1910 and 70% smaller in the long run, neutralizing both the effect of life expectancy and technological bias. So the major part of population increase is due to the technological bias evolution between land and capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Claire Loupias & Bertrand Wigniolle, 2019. "Technological changes and population growth: The role of land in England," Post-Print halshs-02103077, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02103077
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.10.014
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02103077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02103077/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.10.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crafts, Nicholas, 2004. "Productivity Growth in the Industrial Revolution: A New Growth Accounting Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 521-535, June.
    2. Oksana M. LEUKHINA & Stephen J. TURNOVSKY, 2016. "Push, Pull, and Population Size Effects in Structural Development: Long-run Trade-offs," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 423-457, December.
    3. Doepke, Matthias, 2015. "Gary Becker On The Quantity And Quality Of Children," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 59-66, March.
    4. Loupias, Claire & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2013. "Population, land, and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 223-237.
    5. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September.
    6. Eckstein, Zvi & Stern, Steven & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1988. "Fertility Choice, Land, and the Malthusian Hypothesis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(2), pages 353-361, May.
    7. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    8. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
    10. Mr. Sergio Rebelo & Ms. Piyabha Kongsamut & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," IMF Working Papers 2001/085, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Allen, Robert C., 2009. "Engels' pause: Technical change, capital accumulation, and inequality in the british industrial revolution," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 418-435, October.
    12. Oded Galor & Omer Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "Inequality in Landownership, the Emergence of Human-Capital Promoting Institutions, and the Great Divergence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(1), pages 143-179.
    13. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2003. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1091-1113, September.
    14. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & Fabrice Murtin, 2011. "The Relationship Between Health and Growth: When Lucas Meets Nelson-Phelps," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(1).
    15. Morishima, Michio, 1995. "The Dilemma of Durable Goods," Institute for Social Science Research, Working Paper Series qt5sz926t6, Institute for Social Science Research, UCLA.
    16. Bargain, Olivier & Donni, Olivier, 2012. "Expenditure on children: A Rothbarth-type method consistent with scale economies and parents' bargaining," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 792-813.
    17. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2005. "Human Capital Formation, Life Expectancy, and the Process of Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1653-1672, December.
    18. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Dusansky Richard & Wilson Paul W., 1993. "The Demand for Housing: Theoretical Considerations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 120-138, October.
    20. Oksana M. Leukhina & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2016. "Population Size Effects in the Structural Development of England," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 195-229, July.
    21. Apps, Patricia & Rees, Ray, 2001. "Household production, full consumption and the costs of children," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(6), pages 621-648, December.
    22. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    23. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lu, Xin-hai & Jiang, Xu & Gong, Meng-qi, 2020. "How land transfer marketization influence on green total factor productivity from the approach of industrial structure? Evidence from China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "The dual economy in long-run development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 287-312, December.
    2. Loupias, Claire & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2013. "Population, land, and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 223-237.
    3. Yang, Dennis Tao & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2013. "Modernization of agriculture and long-term growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 367-382.
    4. Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: a unified growth perspective," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 173-224, June.
    5. Chu, Angus C. & Peretto, Pietro F. & Wang, Xilin, 2022. "Agricultural revolution and industrialization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Jacob L. Weisdorf, 2006. "From domestic manufacture to Industrial Revolution: long-run growth and agricultural development," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 264-287, April.
    7. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2023. "The scientific revolution and its implications for long-run economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    8. Momota, Akira, 2009. "A population-macroeconomic growth model for currently developing countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 431-453, February.
    9. Javier Birchenall, 2007. "Escaping high mortality," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 351-387, December.
    10. Elizabeth Caucutt & Thomas Cooley & Nezih Guner, 2013. "The farm, the city, and the emergence of social security," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-32, March.
    11. Broadberry, Stephen & Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2017. "Anonymity, efficiency wages and technological progress," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 379-394.
    12. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    13. Tamura, Robert, 2002. "Human capital and the switch from agriculture to industry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 207-242, December.
    14. Jakob B. Madsen & Fabrice Murtin, 2017. "British economic growth since 1270: the role of education," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 229-272, September.
    15. Joel Mokyr & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2012. "Understanding Growth in Europe, 1700–1870: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Sociology, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 13(5), pages 57-102.
    16. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Mandeville, Thomas, 2014. "Never been industrialized: A tale of African structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 124-137.
    17. Iacopetta, Maurizio, 2011. "Formal education and public knowledge," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 676-693, May.
    18. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2020. "The scientific revolution and its role in the transition to sustained economic growth," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 06-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    19. Anne Villamil & Xiaobing Wang & Yuxiang Zou, 2020. "Growth and development with dual labor markets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(6), pages 801-826, December.
    20. Dalila Chenaf-Nicet, 2020. "Dynamics of Structural Change in a Globalized World: What Is the Role Played by Institutions in the Case of Sub-Saharan African Countries?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(4), pages 998-1037, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land; Endogenous fertility;

    JEL classification:

    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02103077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.