Convertibility risk, default risk, and the Mexdollar anomaly
Rogers (l992a,b) I put forth the convertibility risk hypothesis in order to explain the anomalous n~gative relationship between the expected rate of Mexican peso depreciation and the ratio of Mexdollars to peso denominated demand deposits. Recently, Gruben and Welch (1994) examine the effect of deteriorating bank loan quality on the variables I consider. Using a cointegration framework, the authors find (i) a negative relationship between non-performing loans and the dollarization ratio and (ii) the conventional positive relationship between expected peso depreciation and dollarization. The first result suggests an additional factor influencing money demand in Mexico. The second result is evidence against my convertibility risk hypothesis. Further analysis indicates that there is some evidence in favor of Gruben and Welch's first result, but that the preponderance of evidence runs counter to their second result.
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- Rogers, John H., 1992. "Convertibility risk and dollarization in Mexico: a vectorautoregressive analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 188-207, April.
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- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
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Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 300-318, August.
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