IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/1323.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Expansionary Austerity: Reallocating Credit Amid Fiscal Consolidation

Author

Abstract

We study the impact of public debt limits on economic growth exploiting the introduction of a Mexican law capping the debt of subnational governments. Despite larger fiscal consolidation, states with higher ex-ante public debt grew substantially faster after the law, albeit at the expense of increased extreme poverty. Credit registry data suggests that the mechanism behind this result is a reduction in crowding out. After the law, banks operating in more indebted states reallocate credit away from local governments and into private firms. The unwinding of crowding out is stronger for riskier firms, firms borrowing from banks more exposed to local public debt, and for firms operating in states with lower public spending on infrastructure projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardo Morais & José-Luis Peydró & Claudia Ruiz-Ortega, 2021. "Expansionary Austerity: Reallocating Credit Amid Fiscal Consolidation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1323, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1323
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2021.1323
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1323.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/IFDP.2021.1323?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans Degryse & Steven Ongena, 2005. "Distance, Lending Relationships, and Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 231-266, February.
    2. Jang-Sup Shin, 2011. "Finance and Economic Development in China: An Introduction," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 141-143.
    3. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    4. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    5. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2019. "Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, May.
    6. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2014. "Do Firms Want to Borrow More? Testing Credit Constraints Using a Directed Lending Program," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 572-607.
    7. Manuel Adelino & Igor Cunha & Miguel A. Ferreira, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Public Financing: Evidence from Municipal Bond Ratings Recalibration," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3223-3268.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    9. Jeffrey P. Cohen & Catherine J. Morrison Paul, 2004. "Public Infrastructure Investment, Interstate Spatial Spillovers, and Manufacturing Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 551-560, May.
    10. Banerjee, Abhijit V & Newman, Andrew F, 1993. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 274-298, April.
    11. Belo, Frederico & Gala, Vito D. & Li, Jun, 2013. "Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 305-324.
    12. Morais, Bernardo & Peydró, José-Luis & Roldán Peña, Jessica & Ruiz Ortega, Claudia, 2019. "The International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Rates and QE: Credit Supply, Reach-for-Yield, and Real Effects," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74(1), pages 55-90.
    13. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    14. Abhijit Banerjee & Emily Breza & Esther Duflo & Cynthia Kinnan, 2019. "Can Microfinance Unlock a Poverty Trap for Some Entrepreneurs?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0832, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    15. Broner, Fernando & Erce, Aitor & Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2014. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-142.
    16. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    17. Demirci, Irem & Huang, Jennifer & Sialm, Clemens, 2019. "Government debt and corporate leverage: International evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 337-356.
    18. Mathias Hoffmann & Iryna Stewen & Michael Stiefel, 2021. "Growing Like Germany: Local Public Debt, Local Banks, Low Private Investment," Working Papers 2103, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    19. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski & Yongseok Shin, 2011. "Finance and Development: A Tale of Two Sectors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1964-2002, August.
    20. Indraneel Chakraborty & Itay Goldstein & Andrew MacKinlay, 2018. "Housing Price Booms and Crowding-Out Effects in Bank Lending," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2806-2853.
    21. Beck, Thorsten & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2008. "Financing patterns around the world: Are small firms different?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 467-487, September.
    22. Jaime Guajardo & Daniel Leigh & Andrea Pescatori, 2014. "Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 949-968, August.
    23. Manove, Michael & Padilla, A Jorge & Pagano, Marco, 2001. "Collateral versus Project Screening: A Model of Lazy Banks," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 32(4), pages 726-744, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2021. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Nikolaos Filippakis & Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos, 2021. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: A Review of Contemporary Literature," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 19(1), pages 33-50.
    4. Peppel-Srebrny, Jemima, 2021. "Not all government budget deficits are created equal: Evidence from advanced economies' sovereign bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Carsten Eckel & Florian Unger, 2023. "Credit Constraints, Endogenous Innovations, And Price Setting In International Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1715-1747, November.
    6. Akhmadieva, Veronika, 2022. "Fiscal adjustment in a panel of countries 1870–2016," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 555-568.
    7. Andersson, Fredrik N. G. & Jonung, Lars, 2022. "The Risks of Adopting the Bond Yield as the Anchor for the EU Fiscal Framework," Working Papers 2022:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    8. Kose M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge Franziska & Sugawara Naotaka, 2022. "A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 233-268, December.
    9. Jussi Lindgren, 2021. "Examination of Interest-Growth Differentials and the Risk of Sovereign Insolvency," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, April.
    10. Eric W. Bond & James Tybout & Hale Utar, 2015. "Credit Rationing, Risk Aversion, And Industrial Evolution In Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(3), pages 695-722, August.
    11. Andersson, Fredrik N. G., 2020. "Macroeconomic Equilibriums, Crises and Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2020:21, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    12. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2021. "On Public Spending and Economic Unions," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 122-154, March.
    13. Calomiris, Charles W. & Larrain, Mauricio & Liberti, José & Sturgess, Jason, 2017. "How collateral laws shape lending and sectoral activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 163-188.
    14. Julia Fonseca & Adrien Matray, 2022. "Financial Inclusion, Economic Development, and Inequality: Evidence from Brazil," Working Papers 308, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    15. Vybhavi Balasundharam & Olivier Basdevant & Dalmacio Benicio & Andrew Ceber & Yujin Kim & Luca Mazzone & Hoda Selim & Yongzheng Yang, 2023. "Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design," IMF Working Papers 2023/063, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mathias Hoffmann & Iryna Stewen & Michael Stiefel, 2021. "Growing Like Germany: Local Public Debt, Local Banks, Low Private Investment," Working Papers 2103, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    17. Heikki Oksanen, 2019. "Reforming the Euro Pragmatically: Towards Sustainable Fiscal Policy and a Revamped Eurosystem," CESifo Working Paper Series 7912, CESifo.
    18. Wang, Jiaxin & Huang, Xiang & Gu, Qiankun & Song, Zilong & Sun, Ruiyi, 2023. "How does fintech affect bank risk? A perspective based on financialized transfer of government implicit debt risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    19. Liu, Yang, 2023. "Government debt and risk premia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 18-34.
    20. Dabla-Norris, Era & Ji, Yan & Townsend, Robert M. & Filiz Unsal, D., 2021. "Distinguishing constraints on financial inclusion and their impact on GDP, TFP, and the distribution of income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-18.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crowding out; Government lending; Subnational debt; Banks; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L33 - Industrial Organization - - Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise - - - Comparison of Public and Private Enterprise and Nonprofit Institutions; Privatization; Contracting Out
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1323. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.