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Take it to the Limit : The Debt Ceiling and Treasury Yields

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Abstract

We use the 2011 and 2013 U.S. debt limit impasses to examine the extent to which investors react to a heightened possibility of financial contagion. To do so, we first model the response of yields on government debt to a potential debt limit \"breach.\" We then demonstrate empirically that yields on all Treasuries rose by 4 to 8 basis points during both impasses, while excess yields on bills at risk of delayed principal payments were significantly larger in 2013. Perhaps counterintuitively, our model suggests market participants placed a lower probability on financial contagion resulting from a breach in 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • David B. Cashin & Erin E. Syron Ferris & Elizabeth C. Klee & Cailey Stevens, 2017. "Take it to the Limit : The Debt Ceiling and Treasury Yields," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-52
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.052
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    1. Liu, Pu & Shao, Yingying & Yeager, Timothy J., 2009. "Did the repeated debt ceiling controversies embed default risk in US Treasury securities?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1464-1471, August.
    2. Nippani, Srinivas & Liu, Pu & Schulman, Craig T., 2001. "Are Treasury Securities Free of Default?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 251-265, June.
    3. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    4. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
    5. Ali Ozdagli & Joe Peek, 2013. "Cliff notes: the effects of the 2013 debt-ceiling crisis," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Longstaff, Francis A., 2010. "The subprime credit crisis and contagion in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 436-450, September.
    7. Ramon E. Johnson, 1967. "Term Structures Of Corporate Bond Yields As A Function Of Risk Of Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 313-345, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt limit; Financial contagion; Political uncertainty; Treasury yields;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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