IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2020-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Treasury Safety, Liquidity, and Money Premium Dynamics: Evidence from Recent Debt Limit Impasses

Author

Listed:
  • David B. Cashin
  • Erin E. Syron Ferris
  • Elizabeth C. Klee

Abstract

Treasury securities normally possess unparalleled safety and liquidity and, consequently, carry a money premium. We use recent debt limit impasses, which temporarily increased the riskiness of Treasuries, to investigate the relationship between the money premium, safety, and liquidity. Our results shed light on Treasury market dynamics specifically, and debt more generally. We first establish that a decline in the perceived safety of Treasuries erodes the money premium at all times. Meanwhile, changes in liquidity only affected the money premium during the impasses. Next, we show that Treasury safety and liquidity dynamics are generally consistent with the theory of the information sensitivity of debt.

Suggested Citation

  • David B. Cashin & Erin E. Syron Ferris & Elizabeth C. Klee, 2020. "Treasury Safety, Liquidity, and Money Premium Dynamics: Evidence from Recent Debt Limit Impasses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-08
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2020008pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sriya Anbil & Zeynep Senyuz, 2018. "The Regulatory and Monetary Policy Nexus in the Repo Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Nippani, Srinivas & Liu, Pu & Schulman, Craig T., 2001. "Are Treasury Securities Free of Default?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 251-265, June.
    3. Bansal, Ravi & Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1996. "A Monetary Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1135-1171, December.
    4. Viral V Acharya & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger & Christian Hirsch, 2018. "Real Effects of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe: Evidence from Syndicated Loans," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(8), pages 2855-2896.
    5. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
    6. Adam Copeland & Antoine Martin & Michael Walker, 2014. "Repo Runs: Evidence from the Tri-Party Repo Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2343-2380, December.
    7. Mark Carlson & Burcu Duygan-Bump & Fabio Natalucci & Bill Nelson & Marcelo Ochoa & Jeremy Stein & Skander Van den Heuvel, 2016. "The Demand for Short-Term, Safe Assets and Financial Stability: Some Evidence and Implications for Central Bank Policies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 307-333, December.
    8. Marco Cipriani & Gabriele La Spada, 2017. "Investors’ appetite for money-like assets: the money market fund industry after the 2014 regulatory reform," Staff Reports 816, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Brancati, Emanuele & Macchiavelli, Marco, 2019. "The information sensitivity of debt in good and bad times," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 99-112.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David B. Cashin & Erin E. Syron Ferris & Elizabeth C. Klee & Cailey Stevens, 2017. "Take it to the Limit : The Debt Ceiling and Treasury Yields," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Infante, Sebastian, 2020. "Private money creation with safe assets and term premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 828-856.
    3. Efraim Benmelech & Nittai Bergman, 2018. "Debt, Information, and Illiquidity," NBER Working Papers 25054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. George Halkos & Stephanos Papadamou, 2007. "Significance of risk modelling in the term structure of interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 237-247.
    5. Green, Christopher & Bai, Ye & Murinde, Victor & Ngoka, Kethi & Maana, Isaya & Tiriongo, Samuel, 2016. "Overnight interbank markets and the determination of the interbank rate: A selective survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 149-161.
    6. Kurz, Michael & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2019. "Credit Supply: Are there negative spillovers from banks’ proprietary trading? (RM/19/005-revised-)," Research Memorandum 026, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    7. Caroline Jardet & Gaelle Le Fol, 2010. "Euro money market interest rate dynamics and volatility: how they respond to recent changes in the operational framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 316-330.
    8. Katalin Bodnár & Ludmila Fadejeva & Marco Hoeberichts & Mario Izquierdo Peinado & Christophe Jadeau & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Credit shocks and the European labour market," Working Papers 1747, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    9. Hu, Xiaolu & Shi, Jing & Wang, Lafang & Yu, Jing, 2020. "Foreign ownership in Chinese credit ratings industry: Information revelation or certification?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    10. Fernández de Guevara, Juan & Maudos, Joaquín & Salvador, Carlos, 2021. "Effects of the degree of financial constraint and excessive indebtedness on firms’ investment decisions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Bua, Giovanna & Dunne, Peter G. & Sorbo, Jacopo, 2019. "Money Market Funds and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    12. Stephen Quinn & William Roberds, 2016. "Death of a Reserve Currency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 63-103, December.
    13. Paul Pelzl & María Teresa Valderrama, 2019. "Capital regulations and the management of credit commitments during crisis times," DNB Working Papers 661, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    14. te Kaat, Daniel Marcel, 2016. "International Capital Flows and the Allocation of Credit Across Firms," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145584, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Pawel Milobedzki, 2010. "The Term Structure of the Polish Interbank Rates. A Note on the Symmetry of their Reversion to the Mean," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10, pages 81-95.
    16. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Neale Mahoney & Strö & Johannes bel, 2015. "Do Banks Pass Through Credit Expansions? The Marginal Profitability of Consumer Lending During the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 5521, CESifo.
    18. Breckenfelder, Johannes, 2018. "How is a firm’s credit risk affected by sovereign risk?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 53.
    19. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
    20. Bacchetta, Philippe & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2015. "Countercyclical Foreign Currency Borrowing: Eurozone Firms in 2007-2009," CEPR Discussion Papers 10927, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Treasury securities; Money premium; Default risk; Liquidity; Information sensitivity of debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.